Updated 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Cooler Atlantic Temperatures Could Lead to Below-Average to Near-Average Hurricane Season

Special to the Triple-I Blog

by Philip Klotzbach,Ph.D,
Research Scientist, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University and I.I.I. Nonresident Scholar

Colorado State University (CSU) has just updated their outlook for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, and is now calling for a near-average season with a total of 14 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes (maximum sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater; Category 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale) (Figure 1).  This prediction is a slight lowering from their initial outlook in early April which called for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.  Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity are integrated metrics that take into account the frequency, intensity and duration of storms.

Figure 1: May 31, 2018 outlook for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season

CSU’s meteorological team uses a statistical model as one of its primary outlook tools.  This methodology applies historical oceanic and atmospheric data to find predictors that were effective in forecasting previous years’ hurricane activity. Based on data dating back to 1982, this model has shown consistent accuracy. (Figure 2)  Statistical forecast for 2018 is calling for a below-average season.

Figure 2: Accuracy of June statistical forecast model at predicting historical Atlantic hurricane activity (since 1982)

CSU also employs an analog approach, which uses historical data from past years with  conditions that are most similar to those currently observed (as of May 31, 2018).  The team also forecasts projected conditions during 2018 peak hurricane season (August-October) by looking at historical data from years with similar August-October conditions.

This approach yields a similar outlook of below-average to near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic and near-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific.  The average of the four analog seasons calls for a near-average season. (Figure 3)

Figure 3: Analog predictors used in the May 31, 2018 seasonal forecast

CSU does not anticipate a significant El Niño event for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.  At this point, the meteorological team believes that the most likely outcome is neutral conditions for the next several months.  El Niños tend to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity through increases in upper-level winds that tear apart hurricanes as they are trying to develop.  Most of the dynamical and statistical model guidance agrees with this assessment and calls for neutral conditions for the next several months. (Figure 4)

Figure 4: Statistical and dynamical model guidance for El Niño

Most models are calling for neutral conditions for August-October, as highlighted by the black arrow. (Figure courtesy of International Research Institute for Climate and Society.)

The primary reason for a reduced seasonal forecast (compared with earlier 2018 outlook), is due to anomalous cooling of the tropical Atlantic over the past couple of months.  As shown in Figure 5. most of the Atlantic right now is quite a bit cooler than usual. In addition to providing less fuel for storms, a cooler tropical Atlantic is also associated with a more stable and drier atmosphere as well as higher pressure—all conditions that tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.

Figure 5: Current SST anomalies in the North Atlantic.  SSTs are much cooler than normal across the entire tropical Atlantic

The most important thing to note with all seasonal forecasts is that they predict basinwide activity and not individual landfall events.  However, regardless of what the seasonal forecast says, it only takes one storm near you to make it an active season.  Therefore, coastal residents are urged to have a plan in place now before the hurricane season ramps up over the next couple of months.

Extra: If you live in a hurricane-prone region, your homeowners insurance policy may have a separate hurricane deductible. This infographic explains what you need to know.

The Ellicott City Flood: Rebuilding Begins with Resilience

By Sean Kevelighan, CEO, Insurance Information Institute

On May 27, for the second time in three years, Ellicott City, Maryland was ravaged by what meteorologists term a “1,000-year flood”—this while some businesses were still celebrating the one-year anniversary of their reopening after the August 2016 catastrophe.

As affected households and businesses assess the damage and pledge to rebuild (or to relocate) after this deadly event, one fact looms largest: that 1,000- or 100-year floods now seem to strike with numbing regularity. The time has come, then, for communities and individuals to accept this paradigm shift by embracing resilience.

Local, state and federal governments have a wide range of tools at their disposal to effectuate resilience, including public policy solutions and rebuilding/retooling critical infrastructure to withstand greater stresses. However, for business owners, homeowners, and renters, the most important step they can take is to close the “coverage gaps” that expose them to massive uninsured losses that can delay or prevent recovery. And for regulators and insurers, this creates an excellent opportunity for public/private solutions to meet this growing challenge head-on.

Insurtech deals reach a record in the first quarter of 2018

Insurtech deals reached $724 million in the first quarter of 2018, according to Willis Tower Watson. This is a record and a 155 percent increase from Q1 2017.

The number of transactions, at 66, also represents a record. Seven of those transactions rose to over $30 million in recent funding rounds.

There was only one developed market incumbent insurer participating in the fundraising while the remaining funding rounds were dominated by traditional VC money. Willis speculates that the stakes are becoming too high for insurers, especially if they are mostly investing in order to learn how to improve their existing processes.

Lloyd’s loosens its tie (rules)

Had a different post planned for today, but this article about Lloyd’s of London, from behind the Financial Times paywall is the perfect segue into the Memorial Day Weekend:

… over the past few months the insurance market has quietly started to relax its strict tie policy. While it has not yet formally repealed the rule, it is no longer enforcing it strictly.

A spokesperson for Lloyd’s said that the new policy was “in keeping with the norms of business dress in the City”.

One underwriter who works at Lloyd’s welcomed the move. “It’s the right thing to do,” he said. “If you had walked around without a tie 10 years ago it would have been the same as wearing a yellow mankini but this is part of general modernisation.”

… could do without the mankini reference, though.

From the I.I.I. Daily: Our most popular content, May 17 to May 24

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Animal-related insurance losses up by 6 percent from 2014-2017

Source: NICB

 

The National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB) released a study today on the number of animal-related insurance losses for the years 2014-2017. A total of 1,740,425 animal-related insurance claims were processed with 1,739,687 of them (99.9 percent) involving vehicles. Since many drivers do not carry insurance for this type of event, the real number of incidents is likely much higher.

Claims are most likely to occur in Pennsylvania, New York and Wisconsin.

The average animal crash claim amounted to about $4,000 in 2016 according to one major insurer. That would have amounted to nearly $1.8 billion in claims in 2016.

 

May storms to generate $2.5 billion in claims

On May 11-16 a series of wind, hail and rain storms struck most states east of the Rocky Mountains. Karen Clark & Co. a catastrophe modeling firm, estimates that the storms will cost insurers $2.5 billion.

Most of the damage occurred in the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Karen Clark predicts that insured losses higher than $100 million will be seen in: Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

The weather system (referred to as a ‘ring of fire’) led to over 600,000 power outages in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states.  Wind gusts over 58 miles per hour were reported as well as hundreds of hail storms and 28 tornadoes.

Although tornadoes can happen at any time during the year, on average, May is the expected peak of tornado activity.

 

 

Ebola outbreak in the Congo may be eligible for pandemic catastrophe bonds

The unfolding outbreak of the Ebola virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo may activate pandemic catastrophe bonds, said a recent Artemis blog post.

Last year, the World Bank launched a “pandemic bond” to support the Pandemic Emergency Financing Facility (PEF). The cat bonds are designed to payout when an outbreak gets to a stage where emergency aid financing would be required, enabling the mobilization of capital rapidly to help prevent further spread of any eligible disease outbreak.

Pandemic cat bond notes cover a range of pandemic perils including, Coronavirus, Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, Filovirus, Lassa Fever and Rift Valley Fever, with Ebola falling within the Filovirus category.

The current Ebola outbreak appears to be an eligible event under the terms of the transaction, although it’s probably too early for a formal announcement. The number of confirmed deaths remains well below the trigger point which can only begin to payout for a Filovirus like Ebola once the confirmed deaths pass 250.

Pandemics are one of the most certain uninsured risks in the world today, according to the World Bank site. There’s a high probability that the world will experience a severe outbreak in the next 10 to 15 years that could destabilize societies and economies. The annual global cost of moderately severe to severe pandemics is roughly $570 billion, or 0.7 percent of global income. The cost of a severe pandemic like the 1918 Spanish flu could total as much as 5 percent of global GDP.

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Solar power and homeowners insurance

On May 9 California became the first state to mandate that all new homes have solar power. The rules go into effect in two years, and are part of the state’s efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Under the new rules, individual homes must have rooftop solar panels, or a shared solar-power system serving a group of homes. Rooftop panels can either be owned outright and rolled into the home price, or made available for lease. The requirement is expected to add $8,000 to $12,000 to the cost of a home, according to the New York Times. However, savings from heating and cooling could add up to $80 per month.

To help homeowners understand whether solar panels are covered by homeowners insurance, we’ve put together this Q&A.

Q: Are my solar panels covered by homeowners insurance?
A. Yes. Most solar panels are considered a permanent attachment (like a deck) and are therefore protected by a homeowners policy. You will want to call your insurance company and make sure your panels are covered.

Q: How much coverage do I have?
A. Your insurance policy’s coverage limit is the maximum amount that it will pay toward a covered loss. Since solar panels can be expensive, make sure your coverage limit is adequate.

Q. Will having solar panels increase my homeowners insurance premiums?
A: Most likely, yes. Some carriers allow owners with solar energy systems to purchase an optional endorsement to cover the panels. Others include the coverage in the dwelling coverage (Coverage A), if the panels are on the roof of the home, or under “Coverage B,” if they are on the ground or on the roof of a detached structure. Either way, there are replacement costs associated with the panels that would likely increase homeowners premiums.  Homeowners can expect to benefit from solar with increased energy efficiency in the home, but time will tell if the economic advantage of having solar panels outweighs the incremental, upfront costs.

Just like residential sprinkler systems increase water-damage claims, it’s reasonable to expect that solar panels, when attached to roofs, might also increase the chances of roof claims because of damage caused by a windblown panel or a leak at the point of contact, as examples.

Q. What are some of the risks of having solar panels?

A: If a home catches fire, solar panels can be challenging for firefighters. The PV arrays increase the risk of electrocutions, slips and falls and other serious injuries. If the fire is on the roof, the concealed spaces between the panels make it very difficult to get them extinguished. Solar panels are always live, and contact with them with them can cause shock or electrocution. Fire departments are implementing programs to learn how to handle solar panels.