Climate Change


A new study from NOAA reminds us that as sea levels rise, it no longer takes a strong storm or hurricane to lead to flooding.

So-called “nuisance flooding” – which results in public inconveniences such as frequent road closures, overwhelmed storm drains and compromised infrastructures – has increased on all three U.S. coasts by between 300 and 925 percent since the 1960s, according to NOAA.

Eight of the top 10 U.S. cities that have seen an increase in nuisance flooding are on the East Coast.

Annapolis and Baltimore, Maryland, lead the list with an increase in number of flood days of more than 920 percent since 1960.

New Jersey’s Atlantic City and Sandy Hook also made the top five with an increase in flood days of more than 600 percent, NOAA reports.

Port Isabel, Texas, along the Gulf coast, showed an increase of 547 percent, and nuisance flood days in San Francisco, California, increased by 364 percent.


Dr. William Sweet, oceanographer at NOAA’s Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) and the report’s lead author notes:

Flooding now occurs with high tides in many locations due to climate-related sea level rise, land subsidence and the loss of natural barriers. The effects of rising sea levels along most of the continental U.S. coastline are only going to become more noticeable and much more severe in the coming decades, probably more so than any other climate-change related factor.”

Scientists took data from 45 NOAA water level gauges with long data records around the country and compared that to reports of number of days of nuisance floods.

The study defines nuisance flooding as a daily rise in water level above the minor flooding threshold set locally by NOAA’s National Weather Service, and focused on coastal areas at or below these levels that are especially susceptible to flooding.

NOAA concludes that any acceleration in sea level rise that is predicted to occur this century will further intensify the impact of nuisance flooding over time, and will further reduce the time between flood events.

It also warns that while event frequencies are accelerating at many U.S. East and Gulf coast gauges, many other locations will soon follow regardless of whether there is an acceleration in relative sea level rise.

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on flood insurance and climate change and insurance.

Climate change is among the five most likely and most potentially impactful global risks, according to the just-released World Economic Forum (WEF) 2014 Global Risks Report.

The report assesses 31 risks that are global in nature and have the potential to cause significant negative impact across entire countries and industries if they take place.

An analysis of the five risks considered most likely and most impactful since 2007 shows that environmental risks, such as climate change, extreme weather events and water scarcity, have become more prominent since 2011 (see chart above).

This suggests a pressing need for better public information about the potential consequences of environmental threats, the WEF says.

Concern about socio-economic risks such as income disparity, unemployment and fiscal crises has become more prominent over the years.

The report reveals that fiscal crises and structural unemployment and underemployment are among the most impactful risks while the latter also feature among those most likely to occur. This has knock-on effects on income disparities, which is regarded as the overall most likely risk, the WEF notes.

Cyber attacks and the breakdown of critical information infrastructure also feature among the most prominent risks in this year’s report.

The WEF notes:

This arguably reflects the increasing digitization of economies and societies, where rising dependence on information and data, as well as the systems to analyze and use them, has made attacks more likely and their effects more impactful.”

WEF note: Global risks may not be strictly comparable across years, as definitions and the set of global risks have been revised with new issues having emerged on the 10-year horizon. For example, cyber attacks, income disparity and unemployment entered the set of global risks in 2012. Some global risks were reclassified: water supply crises and income disparity were reclassified as environmental and societal risks, respectively, in 2014.

The report is published in collaboration with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Swiss Re, Zurich Insurance Group, National University of Singapore, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, University of Pennsylvania.

With two months to go to the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Sandy, a federal task force created after the storm has issued a report that’s getting a lot of media coverage.

The plan includes 69 policy initiatives, of which a major recommendation is to build stronger buildings to better withstand future extreme storms amid a changing climate.

Shaun Donovan, secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, and chair of the task force, notes:

Last year alone, there were 11 different weather and climate disaster events across the United States with estimated losses exceeding $1 billion each. We know that every dollar we spend today on hazard mitigation saves us at least $4 in avoided costs if a disaster strikes again. By building more resilient regions, we can save billions in taxpayer dollars.”

The report makes clear that rebuilding to outdated standards is no longer an option given the impact of climate change and rising sea levels:

No single solution or set of actions can anticipate every threat, but decision makers at all levels must recognize that climate change and the resulting increase in risks from extreme weather have eliminated the option of simply building back to outdated standards and expecting better outcomes after the next extreme event. There is clear evidence at the national level that investments made to mitigate risk have achieved significant benefits.”

One section of the plan focuses on addressing insurance challenges, understanding and affordability.

Specifically, the taskforce recommends: streamlining payouts to policyholders in the wake of disaster; improving policyholder awareness of factors that affect flood risk and insurance rating decisions; and studying affordability challenges of flood insurance as the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) transitions toward full risk rates.

PC360 has more on this story.

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on flood insurance here.

We start the week with a new animation from NASA that shows the increasing risk of wildfire activity across the United States in the coming decades.

An article on the NASA website notes that with satellite and climate data, scientists have been able to track an increase in dry conditions since the 1980s.

Climate projections suggest this trend will continue, increasing the risk of fire in the Great Plains and Upper Midwest by the end of the 21st Century, according to NASA.

NASA explains:

The newest generation of climate models project drier conditions that likely will cause increased fire activity across the United States in coming decades. These changes are likely to come in a number of different forms, including longer fire seasons, larger areas at risk of wildfire, and an increase in the frequency of extreme events – years like 2012 in the western United States.”

Fire seasons are starting earlier due to warmer spring temperatures and earlier snowmelt, and they are lasting longer into the fall, NASA notes.

It cites NIFC statistics indicating that 100,000-acre wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent.

Here’s the animation:

Hat tip to CNET for its blog post on this story.

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on wildfires, and a backgrounder on climate change insurance issues.

As we basked in 70 degree temperatures in parts of the Northeast on Sunday, just a few days in the wake of a nor’easter and nearly two weeks after Hurricane Sandy, it’s understandable that the topic of climate change is trending online.

In a post over at the Wall Street Journal’s Metropolis blog, Eric Holthaus asks the direct question: did climate change factor into recent storms?

He cites the connection between long-term sea level rise and the enhanced coastal flooding that devastated parts of Greater New York as evidence of a much clearer link between Sandy and climate change.

New York Harbor’s average water level is now 12 to 18 inches higher than it was in the 1880s, Holthaus says, and scientists estimate about 8 to 12 inches of that is a direct result of global warming. So, more people were affected in the tri-state during Hurricane Sandy than would have been if the same storm had struck in a world without climate change.

He concludes:

For the victims of Hurricane Sandy, it may come as little consolation, but history may show them to be—with absolute certainty—among the first people in the United States directly affected by climate change.”

In another post over at Scientific American’s Observations blog, Mark Fischetti writes that scientists, journalists and even insurers are starting to drop the caveats, and simply say that climate change is causing big storms.

Fischetti suggests that as scientists collect more and more data over time, more of them will be willing to make the same data-based statements.

A recent study by Munich Re reported that North America was most affected by the rising number of natural catastrophes. Specifically, it noted a nearly five-fold increase in the number of weather related loss events in North America for the past 30 years, compared with an increase of 4 in Asia, 2.5 in Africa, 2 in Europe and 1.5 in South America.

In a press release announcing the study, Munich Re said:

Climate change particularly affects formation of heat-waves, droughts, intense precipitation events, and in the long run more probably also tropical cyclone intensity. The view that weather extremes are becoming more frequent and intense in various regions due to global warming is in keeping with current scientific findings…”

Munich Re added:

Up to now, however, the increasing losses caused by weather related natural catastrophes have been primarily driven by socio-economic factors, such as population growth, urban sprawl and increasing wealth.”

Check out I.I.I. information on climate change and insurance.

A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Southeast Florida and the Upper Keys as Tropical Storm Sandy continues to strengthen and moves towards Jamaica.

In its 8am EDT outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says Sandy is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches Jamaica and Cuba, later today.

The NHC notes:

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach Jamaica this morning…with hurricane conditions expected by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Haiti by this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas by early Thursday…and in the northwestern Bahamas by Thursday afternoon.”

It adds:

Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast Florida coast…the Upper Keys…and Florida Bay by Friday morning.”

Jamaica, Haiti and the Bahamas are members of the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), a multinational insurance pool developed by the World Bank. Funded by premiums paid by participating countries, the facility provides early payout to members after a major hurricane or earthquake.

Check out I.I.I. hurricane facts+stats.

A new study by NOAA and UK Met Office scientists makes the link between global warming and extreme weather events.

The paper, Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective, looks at six global extreme weather and climate events from 2011, including last year’s drought in Texas.

Key takeaways from the paper are:

– Determining the causes of extreme events remains difficult. While scientists cannot trace specific events to climate change with absolute certainty, new and continued research help scientists understand how the probability of extreme events change in response to global warming.

РLa Ni̱a-related heat waves, like that experienced in Texas in 2011, are now 20 times more likely to occur during La Ni̱a years today than La Ni̱a years fifty years ago.

– The UK experienced a very warm November 2011 and a very cold December 2010. In analyzing these two very different events, UK scientists uncovered interesting changes in the odds. Cold Decembers are now half as likely to occur now versus fifty years ago, whereas warm Novembers are now 62 times more likely.

– Climate change cannot be shown to have played any role in the 2011 floods on the Chao Phraya River that flooded Bangkok, Thailand. Although the flooding was unprecedented, the amount of rain that fell in the river “catchment” area was not very unusual. Other factors, such as changes in reservoir policies and increased construction on the flood plain, were found most relevant in setting the scale of the disaster.

The New York Times has more on the study findings.

Release of the study comes along with NOAA’s 2011 State of the Climate report which found that worldwide 2011 was the coolest year on record since 2008, yet temperatures remained above the
30 year average.

NOAA’s climate report also provides details on a number of global extreme events from last year, including the Thailand floods, drought and tornado outbreaks in the U.S., floods in Brazil and the summer heat wave in central and southern Europe.

In the words of Deputy NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan:

2011 will be remembered as a year of extreme events, both in the United States and around the world. Every weather event that happens now takes place in the context of a changing global environment. This annual report provides scientists and citizens alike with an analysis of what has happened so we can all prepare for what is to come.”

Check out information from the Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.) on climate change and insurance.

The unanimous decision by a federal appeals court to uphold a finding by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that greenhouse gases endanger public health and can be regulated under the Clean Air Act is drawing a wide range of responses in the media.

The New York Times reports that in addition to upholding the E.P.A.’s so-called endangerment finding, the three-judge panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia let stand related rules setting limits on greenhouse gas emissions from cars and limiting emissions from stationary sources.

The Wall Street Journal describes the decision as a blow to the coal industry and other companies, noting that he court gave the EPA almost everything it wanted in the 82-page ruling.

According to Wonkblog at the Washington Post this is what the decision means:

For one, the EPA will finish up drafting standards requiring cars and light trucks to get a fleet-wide average fuel economy of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. And the agency can move forward with its rules limiting carbon pollution from new power plants. Next up: The agency has to decide whether to place carbon limits on existing power plants, as well as whether to regulate other major sources of pollution such as oil refineries or cement plants.”

The NY Times Dot Earth blog has a downloadable version of the full court decision posted here.

Check out I.I.I. information on climate change and insurance.

As wildfires continue to burn in Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming and Arizona, we read that U.S. Forest Service chief Tom Tidwell is renewing his call to restore forests to a more natural state in which fire was part of the landscape.

The Associated Press reports that the Forest Service’s plan is to set the clock back to zero, accelerating restoration programs – including prescribed fires and mechanical thinning – by 20 percent each year in key areas that are facing the greatest danger of a catastrophic fire.

According to AP, four million acres are being targeted this year with a $1 billion budget.

Meanwhile, a new report from scientists at the University of California at Berkeley and Texas Tech University says that climate change will cause more wildfires across North America and Europe in the next 30 years.

The study used 16 different climate models to generate its results. Risk Management Monitor has more on its findings.

And a new climate analysis from NOAA notes that the U.S. experienced its hottest spring (March-May) on record, with an average temperature of 57.1°F, 5.2°F above the 1901-2000 long-term average, surpassing the previous warmest spring (1910) by 2.0°F.

With the warmest March, third warmest April and second warmest May, Spring 2012 marked the largest temperature departure from average of any season on record for the contiguous United States, NOAA says.

In May, ongoing drought, combined with windy conditions, created ideal wildfire conditions across the Southwest.

NOAA notes that the Whitewater-Baldy Fire complex in the Gila National Forest of western New Mexico had charred over 210,000 acres by the beginning of June, surpassing 2011’s Las Conchas Fire as the largest wildfire on record for the state. The Whitewater-Baldy fire is still burning.

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on wildfires.

The Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association (RMIIA) is a good resource for information on the Colorado wildfires.

Regular readers of our blog will remember a previous post on a public nuisance lawsuit brought by the Alaskan coastal town of Kivalina against 24 energy and utility firms.

Now a state appeals court has decided what is being described as the first climate change liability insurance coverage case – a case that arose out of the underlying public nuisance lawsuit – in favor of an insurer.

Late last week the Virginia Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that Steadfast Insurance has no duty to defend and indemnify the energy company AES Corp.

Basically the decision hinged on the definition of occurrence in the commercial general liability (CGL) insurance policies that AES purchased from Steadfast.

In the opinion, Justice S. Bernard Goodwyn noted that under the CGL policies in question, “occurrence” is defined as “an accident, including continuous or repeated exposure to substantially the same general harmful condition.”

Justice Goodwyn wrote:

The relevant policies only require Steadfast to defend AES against claims for damages for bodily injury or property damage caused by an occurrence or accident.”

However, the Kivalina complaint had alleged that AES intentionally emitted carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Justice Goodwyn further noted:

Kivalina alleges its damages were the natural and probable consequence of AES’s intentional actions. Therefore, Kivalina does not allege that its property damage was the result of a fortuitous event or accident, and such loss is not covered under the relevant CGL policies.”

According to an article in the New York Times by Lawrence Hurley of Greenwire, legal experts caution that this initial opinion in favor of insurers is just one decision that applies to only one state and one insurance policy.

A post at the ClimateLawyers blog states:

This is the first skirmish of what is certain to be a protracted battle between insurers and insureds. There are 50 other jurisdictions (including the District of Columbia) and this is only one issue based on one complaint and one insurer’s policy language. There is a long way to go before we will have clarity here.”

Check out the I.I.I. backgrounder on Climate Change Insurance Issues.

Next Page »