Political Risks


The number of countries with downgraded political risk ratings grew in the last year, as all five emerging market BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) saw their risk rating increase, according to Aon’s 2014 Political Risk Map.

As a result, countries representing a large share of global output experienced a broad-based increase in political risk including political violence, government interference and sovereign non-payment risk, Aon said.

The 2014 map shows that 16 countries were downgraded in 2014 compared to 12 in 2013. Only six countries experienced upgrades (where the territory risk is rated lower than the previous year), compared to 13 in 2013.

Aon noted that Brazil’s rating was downgraded because political risks have been increasing from moderate levels as economic weakness has increased the role of the government in the economy.

This is of particular concern given this year’s World Cup and the 2016 Olympics.”

Russia’s rating was also downgraded due to recent developments with the Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea.

Aon said:

Political strains and focus on geopolitical issues have exacerbated an already weak operating environment for business and exchange transfer risks have increased following the risk of new capital controls. Russia’s economy continues to be dominated by the government, so economic policy deadlock has brought growth to a standstill and with it an increase in the risk of political violence.”

India, China and South Africa also saw their ratings downgraded.

In another key takeaway Aon noted that Ukraine is now rated a very high risk country, as the implications of developments following the annexation of Crimea by Russia and government collapse warranted a further downgrade in political risk.

Exchange transfer risks, which are already very high will be further increased by restrictions in the financial system, Further, the willingness and ability of the country to settle its debts may be affected.”

The map measures political risk in 163 countries and territories, in order to help companies assess and analyse their exposure to exchange transfer, legal and regulatory risk, political interference, political violence, sovereign non-payment and supply chain disruption.

Hat tip to Insurance Journal which reports on this story here.

The Ukraine crisis is making headlines around the world, and also in the insurance world.

While events are still unfolding, Russia’s move to annex the Crimea region of Ukraine has prompted United States and European Union leaders to impose economic and travel sanctions on some Russian officials.

U.S. and EU leaders will meet next week in the Netherlands to discuss the crisis and further sanctions are possible.

As for insurance implications, the ongoing turmoil has the potential to impact the political risk, structured credit and trade credit insurance markets.

Broker Marsh said in a briefing last week that some insurers had stopped underwriting political risk insurance in the two countries due to concern over the political unrest and credit ratings in Ukraine and potential sanctions in Russia.

Canadian Underwriter reported on the story here.

Noting the uncertainty of the evolving situation, Marsh said:

Companies with interests in the region face the potential for damage to assets through political violence and possible broader expropriation measures or sanctions against foreign interest in Russia should sanctions be imposed against the country. This is in addition to the potential for payment delays on trade payment obligations due from customers, especially those in Ukraine.”

Marsh also noted that because Russia is the political risk and structured credit market’s largest country exposure, if the current conflict results in large-scale insurable damage, global premiums and insurance capacity for these coverages could be adversely affected.

There is also the potential for a downgrade of the country rating by the ratings agencies and possible payment difficulties for creditors of Ukrainian companies, either commercial or economic, Marsh added.

The broker advised businesses with operations in Ukraine, especially those in Crimea, to check their crisis response and insurance programs to ensure they sufficiently mitigate the potential effects on their operations.

The I.I.I.’s International Insurance Fact Book has insurance and economic data on Russia and Ukraine here.