For those of us lucky enough to have seen snow this winter (i.e. Denver) the news that Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow and that there will be an early spring in 2007 will be gladly received. For the industry, however, the freeze looks likely to last a little longer. According to the I.I.I. 2007 Groundhog Day forecast, most insurance industry analysts predict slower P/C premium growth in 2007. Nevertheless, this year’s survey results indicate that the respite in catastrophe losses in 2006 will likely propel the industry to its best underwriting performance since 1936. Industry profitability is expected to continue in 2007, albeit with an underwriting performance that generates a much smaller underwriting profit. This apparent paradox—a peak in industry profits, but stalling premium growth—is a clear reminder of the cyclical nature of the property/casualty business, and the fact that our industry’s financial fortunes are influenced by a number of factors.