Monday, November 12, 2012
As we basked in 70 degree temperatures in parts of the Northeast on Sunday, just a few days in the wake of a norâ€™easter and nearly two weeks after Hurricane Sandy, itâ€™s understandable that the topic of climate change is trending online.
In a post over at the Wall Street Journalâ€™s Metropolis blog, Eric Holthaus asks the direct question: did climate change factor into recent storms?
He cites the connection between long-term sea level rise and the enhanced coastal flooding that devastated parts of Greater New York as evidence of a much clearer link between Sandy and climate change.
New York Harborâ€™s average water level is now 12 to 18 inches higher than it was in the 1880s, Holthaus says, and scientists estimate about 8 to 12 inches of that is a direct result of global warming. So, more people were affected in the tri-state during Hurricane Sandy than would have been if the same storm had struck in a world without climate change.
For the victims of Hurricane Sandy, it may come as little consolation, but history may show them to beâ€”with absolute certaintyâ€”among the first people in the United States directly affected by climate change.”
In another post over at Scientific Americanâ€™s Observations blog, Mark Fischetti writes that scientists, journalists and even insurers are starting to drop the caveats, and simply say that climate change is causing big storms.
Fischetti suggests that as scientists collect more and more data over time, more of them will be willing to make the same data-based statements.
A recent study by Munich Re reported that North America was most affected by the rising number of natural catastrophes. Specifically, it noted a nearly five-fold increase in the number of weather related loss events in North America for the past 30 years, compared with an increase of 4 in Asia, 2.5 in Africa, 2 in Europe and 1.5 in South America.
In a press release announcing the study, Munich Re said:
Climate change particularly affects formation of heat-waves, droughts, intense precipitation events, and in the long run more probably also tropical cyclone intensity. The view that weather extremes are becoming more frequent and intense in various regions due to global warming is in keeping with current scientific findingsâ€¦â€
Munich ReÂ added:
Up to now, however, the increasing losses caused by weather related natural catastrophes have been primarily driven by socio-economic factors, such as population growth, urban sprawl and increasing wealth.â€