Global Rise in Political Risks for Investors

Direct foreign investors operating in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) face an increasing level of political risk as a result of the instability and uncertainty created by the Arab Awakening, according to an annual risk report.

The 2014 Marsh-Maplecroft Political Risk Map reveals that more than 60 percent of countries in the MENA region have experienced a significant increase in the level of political violence since 2010.

According to the map, 17 countries since 2010 have experienced a significant increase in their level of dynamic political risk, more than half of which are located in the MENA region.

Note: dynamic political risks focus on short-term challenges, such as rule of law, political violence, the macroeconomic environment, resource nationalism and regime stability.

Syria has seen the most significant increase in risk and is now ranked as the second-highest risk country behind only Somalia.   For the first time, Egypt is now categorized as “extreme† risk for political violence, a deterioration driven by post-coup violence and increased terrorist activity in the Sinai Peninsula.

Over the past year, East Africa was host to the most countries with an increase in political violence, according to the map.

Marsh notes that the increase in political violence in East Africa presents significant challenges to foreign investors looking to the region following the discovery of substantial oil and gas reserves.

Despite these risks, the map points to opportunities for investors in six growth markets where overall dynamic political risk has significantly improved since 2010: the Philippines, India, Uganda, Ghana, Israel, and Malaysia.

The map draws from Maplecroft’s Political Risk Atlas 2014 and highlights dynamic political risks across 197 countries, including conflict, terrorism, macroeconomic stability, rule of law, and regulatory and business environments.

Hat tip to Business Insurance which reports here.

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