Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Forecasters’ Twitter feeds are alight this morning as to the potential development of two systems in the tropical Atlantic.
Here’s the latest graphic of where they’re located, courtesy of the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
The NHC gives the first disturbance currently located several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands a 50 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days.
The second disturbance, a tropical wave located 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, has a low (20 percent) chance of tropical storm formation in the next five days.
Over at Weather Underground, Dr. Jeff Masters noted that if the first disturbance (designated Invest 96L by the NHC) does develop, it would likely be similar to Tropical Storm Bertha of early August while it is in the Caribbean—a weak and disorganized system that struggles against dry air.
Meanwhile @EricHolthaus tweets that Invest 96L could be a tropical threat to the U.S. next week, based on the first model runs.
It’s still too early to tell, but Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 96L Thursday afternoon if necessary.
Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on hurricanes.
And a shout-out to Paul Dzielinski of The Dec Page who hosts Calvalcade of Risk #215 Dog Days of Summer edition here.