Tianjin Anniversary: Better Modeling Benefits Insurers

As we approach the one year anniversary of the explosions at the Port of Tianjin, China, a new report finds that a port’s size and its catastrophe loss potential are not strongly correlated.

Based on the 1-in-500 year estimated catastrophe loss for earthquake, wind and storm surge perils, the surprising analysis by catastrophe modeler RMS, shows that it’s not just the biggest container hubs around the world that have a high risk of insurance loss.

For example, smaller ports such as the U.S. ports of Plaquemines, Louisiana, and Pascagoula, Mississippi, as well as Bremerhaven, Germany rank among the top 10 ports at highest risk of marine cargo loss.

Chris Folkman, director, product management at RMS, said:

“While China may be king for volume of container traffic, our study found that many smaller U.S. ports rank more highly for risk — largely due to hurricanes. Our analysis proves what we’ve long suspected — that outdated techniques and incomplete data have obscured many high-risk locations.”

RMS’ analysis shows the riskiest two ports are in Japan (Nagoya – $2.3 billion) and China (Guangzhou – $2 billion), and that six of the top 10 riskiest ports are in the U.S., with the remaining two in Europe (see chart below).

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The findings come after four years of marine catastrophes which have generated billions of dollars in marine insurance losses: 2015 Tianjin explosion (more than $3 billion); 2012 Superstorm Sandy (est. $3 billion marine loss, of which approximately $2 billion cargo loss); and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami.

The Tianjin loss ranks among the largest man-made insured global loss events in history, with an estimated total insured property loss of up to $3.5 billion.

To conduct its analysis RMS marine risk experts used the new RMS marine cargo model, which takes into account cargo type, precise storage location, storage type, and dwell time to determine port exposure and accumulations.

RMS suggests that better data and modeling are key for more effective portfolio management and underwriting.

Check out Insurance Information Institute facts and statistics on man-made disasters here.

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