Tag Archives: CSU

Prepare The Same For Every Hurricane Season

Early 2017 Atlantic hurricane forecasts are predicting fewer storms, but here’s why coastal residents shouldn’t let their guard down.

Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project: “Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

London’s TSR (Tropical Storm Risk): The precision of hurricane outlooks issued in April is low and large uncertainties remain for the 2017 hurricane season.

Forecasters believe development of potential El Niño conditions in the coming months will suppress storm activity.

What are the numbers?

CSU: 11 named storms, with 4 hurricanes and 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes. The median between 1981 and 2000 was 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes and two major hurricanes. U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated at 80 percent of the long-period average.

TSR: 11 named storms, with 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. 2017 Atlantic hurricane activity will be 30 percent below 1950-2016 long-term average.

I.I.I. hurricane facts and statistics here, plus information on flood insurance here.

Following Insuring Florida blog for more on hurricane preparedness.

Atlantic Hurricane Season: The Long View

As the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season officially draws to a close just days after Hurricane Otto became the latest calendar year Atlantic hurricane on record to make landfall, the question on everyone’s lips is: are the seasons growing longer?

For if Otto, which struck southern Nicaragua as a Category 2 over Thanksgiving, is the last hurricane of the 2016 season, it will mark the end to the longest hurricane season on record the Atlantic Ocean has seen, according to NOAA.

The 2016 season had an early beginning—well ahead of its June 1 official start—when Hurricane Alex became the first Atlantic hurricane in January since Hurricane Alice in 1955.

At 75 knots, Alex was also the second strongest Atlantic hurricane on record in January, after 1955’s Alice at 80 knots, according to the 2016 season summary by Phil Klotzbach, head of Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.

Regardless of whether this points to any long-term trend, it does appear that residents in hurricane-prone areas should keep an eye on the tropics year-round, not just in the June 1-November 30 window.

In the end, the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season was somewhat above average. As CSU’s summary outlines:

“The season was characterized by somewhat above-average named storms and major hurricanes, with slightly above-average hurricane numbers.”

The final tally was 15 named storms, including seven hurricanes, of which three were major hurricanes.

Three tropical storms (Bonnie, Colin and Julia) and two hurricanes (Hermine and Matthew) made U.S. landfall this year, according to NOAA.

There were a number of key takeaways, according to CSU, not least that a total of 78.25 named storm days and 26.25 hurricane days occurred in 2016—the most in an individual Atlantic hurricane season since 2012.

The 9.75 major hurricane days that occurred in 2016 are also the most in a single Atlantic hurricane season since 2010.

Florida’s record-long hurricane drought at 3,966 days ended when Hermine made landfall in the Big Bend of Florida on September 2.

Meanwhile, Matthew became the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Felix (2007).

No major hurricanes made United States landfall in 2016, although Hurricane Matthew came within about 50 miles of breaking this streak, CSU notes:

“The last major hurricane to make U.S. landfall was Wilma (2005), so the U.S. has now gone 11 years without a major hurricane landfall. The U.S. has never had another 11-year period without a major hurricane landfall since records began in 1851.”

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on hurricanes here.

Experts Say Above Average Hurricane Season Still Likely

While three of the major hurricane forecasters have reduced by a smidgen their predictions for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, the season as a whole is still expected to be above-average as is the chance of a major hurricane making U.S. landfall.

Bear in mind that to-date the 2013 season has seen four named storms (Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dorian) – none of which reached hurricane status.

Here’s how the revised forecasts stack up:

Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project now predicts 18 named tropical storms, including eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3-4-5). This is down slightly from its June forecast which called for 18 named storms, including nine hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The CSU team also continues its call for above-average probability of a major hurricane making U.S. or Caribbean landfall.

London-based consortium Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) is calling for 14.8 named tropical storms, 6.9 hurricanes, of which three will be intense. This is down from its early June forecast which called for 15.6 named storms, 7.7 hurricanes including 3.5 major hurricanes.  TSR predicts North Atlantic and U.S. hurricane activity in 2013 will be about 20 percent above the long-term (1950-2012) norm.

WSI (Weather Services International Corp) has also reduced its forecast numbers slightly, to 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and three intense hurricanes, compared to its earlier forecast of 16/9/4. WSI noted that North Atlantic temperatures have not warmed as fast as expected this summer, and if current trends persist, it may have to reduce these numbers even further.

Artemis blog has a round-up of the numbers on its 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season page.

Check out I.I.I. facts and stats on hurricanes.