Tag Archives: Energy Risks

How Falling Oil Prices Affect Energy Losses

Is there a connection between falling oil prices and insurance claims?

This question is tackled by broker Marsh in a just-released research report: Can Energy Firms Break the Historical Nexus Between Oil Price Falls and Large Losses?

According to Marsh, insured losses in the global upstream energy sector reached a peak in the 1980s, shortly after the price of Brent crude oil fell from $35 to $15 per barrel.

In the late 1990s, this cycle occurred again when the price fell below $10 per barrel and again in the years following the 2008 slump, when the price fell from more than $100 to $32 per barrel.

When oil prices fall, companies face less revenue and more strain on budgets. Already, Marsh notes that oil and gas companies have been canceling projects and making staffing reductions.

But there are other potential cuts that are harder to quantify such as cuts in maintenance, health and safety measures, and employee training.

Cost-cutting decisions such as these appear to have led to increased losses in the past, according to the Marsh report:

Based on past experience, when this pullback in funding occurs, if it hasn’t already, we would expect to see an increase in losses soon after.”

Here’s the chart showing the link between oil prices and insurance claims:

Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 10.22.07 PM

Despite falling revenues, Marsh urges energy firms to maintain their investment in risk management to reduce the potential for future major incidents and insurance claims.

Marsh also suggests that now is the time for energy firms to take advantage of lower prices in a benign insurance market to push for increased protection in uncertain times.

With the cost of insurance capital at historic lows, the opportunity clearly exists for companies to access cheap sources of capital from the insurance markets, reduce overall insurance premium costs, purchase insurance in areas that were previously omitted due to cost, and renegotiate coverage terms.”

Hurricanes, the Gulf of Mexico and Energy Risks

If a strong hurricane were to pass through the Gulf of Mexico the overall effect on U.S. oil and natural gas supply would not be as severe as in past years, due to declining production in the region, according to a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

However, Artemis blog warns that this won’t change the potential impact to insurers and reinsurers, particularly with the removal and decommissioning of rigs also being insured.

In its post, Artemis notes that the reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market in recent years has been placing an increasing focus on gaining access to underwriting energy risks, particularly physical damage risks due to storms and earthquakes.

With an increasing amount of ILS capital at risk in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as on the shore through catastrophe bonds and collateralized reinsurance, the exposure to hurricane impacts on the oil and gas production network in and around the Gulf is growing.†

The EIA estimates that up to 11.6 million barrels of crude oil and 29.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas production could be disrupted by storms during the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Its estimate is based on NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook released May 22.

NOAA expects that 8 to 13 named storms are likely to form within the Atlantic Basin over the next six months, including 3 to 6 hurricane, of which 1 to 2 will be intense.

In recent years offshore energy production has experienced relatively minor disruptions due to tropical weather, the EIA reports. However, a single strong storm can cause significant levels of shut-in production:

During September of 2008, category-4 hurricanes Gustav and Ike at one point caused nearly 100 percent of production capacity to be shut in. EIA estimates that these two storms (along with a tropical storm in July) resulted in the loss of 25 percent of the GOM crude oil and natural gas that would have been produced during the 2008 hurricane season.†

Check out the EIA chart showing recent impact of storms on GOM oil and natural gas production:

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on energy.