Tag Archives: Flood Insurance

Back-To-School flood safety

From Buzzfeed, a back-to-school headline you may not have considered: Is Your School In A Flood Zone?

For example, a Salt Lake City rainstorm just caused a flash flood that damaged many properties, including East High School where Disney’s High School Musical was filmed.

According to a report from the Pew Charitable Trusts and consulting firm ICF, some 6,444 public schools across the United States that serve nearly 4 million students are located in the 100 counties with the highest composite flood scores.

The risk of school flooding is distributed widely across the U.S. Schools in both inland and coastal areas have the highest composite flood risk scores, the report says.

Think Atlantic Coast, Gulf Coast, Mississippi River corridor, and southwestern Arizona.

Even when a school is not located in a flood zone, students who attend it often live within areas of flood risk.

“Of more than 5,000 schools, half or more of the ZIP code is located in a designated 1 percent annual chance flood zone.”

Here’s the map:

The composite flood risk score calculated by ICF is based on three indicators: a school’s location within a designated flood zone, the percentage of a school’s neighborhood (as represented by ZIP code) located within a flood zone, and the number of historical flood-related federal disaster declarations in that county.

Taking proactive steps to reduce risks and improve flood safety is a growing priority for some schools.

Insurance Information Institute facts and statistics on flood insurance here.

Private market flood insurance is cheaper in many cases

Alongside the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), a thriving private flood insurance market would provide wider and in many cases cheaper coverage options, according to a new study.

Consulting firm Milliman, in partnership with risk modeler KatRisk, looked at three states – Florida, Texas, and Louisiana – which combined account for 56 percent of NFIP insurance policies in-force nationwide.

Its analysis compared modeled private flood insurance premiums to those of the NFIP.

Key findings:

  • Some 77 percent of single-family homes in Florida, 69 percent in Louisiana, and 92 percent in Texas could see cheaper premiums with private insurance than with the NFIP.
  • Of the homes modeled, 44 percent in Florida, 42 percent in Louisiana and 70 percent in Texas, could see premiums that are less than one-fifth that of the NFIP.
  • Conversely, private insurance would cost over twice the NFIP premiums for 14 percent of single-family homes in Florida, 21 percent in Louisiana and 5 percent in Texas.

prior post discussed how private carriers are dipping their toes in the flood insurance market.

Private Market Flood Insurance Is Budding

Private carriers are dipping their toes in the turbulent waters of flood insurance, writes Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.) research manager Maria Sassian.

This year, for the first time, insurers were required to report in their annual statements data on private flood insurance.

I.I.I. has compiled a list of top insurers in the market by 2016 direct premiums written, based on data from S&P Global Market Intelligence:

As you can see, the top three companies hold almost 81 percent of the market share, and at number one FM Global has a 54 percent market share. Direct premiums written for all companies total $376 million.

Private flood includes both commercial and private residential coverage, primarily first-dollar standalone policies that cover the flood peril and excess flood. It excludes sewer/water backup and the crop flood peril.

Some of the reasons private insurers are becoming more comfortable covering flood risk include: improved flood mapping technology; improved flood modeling; the construction of flood resistant buildings; and encouragement from Congress.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is billions of dollars in debt due to large losses from Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Superstorm Sandy. Opening the market to private insurers is one of several measures enacted by lawmakers to get the program out of debt.

Another step in shoring up the NFIP took place with the January 2017 transfer of over $1 billion in financial risk to private reinsurers. FEMA gained the authority to secure reinsurance from the private reinsurance and capital markets through the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012 and the Homeowners Flood Insurance Affordability Act of 2014 (HFIAA).

Storm surge and flooding top of minds this hurricane season

Nearly 6.9 million homes along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts have the potential for storm surge damage with a total estimated reconstruction cost value (RCV) of more than $1.5 trillion.

But it’s the location of future storms that will be integral to understanding the potential for catastrophic damage, according to CoreLogic’s 2017 storm surge analysis.

That’s because some 67.3 percent of the 6.9 million at-risk homes and 68.6 percent of the more than $1.5 trillion total RCV is located within 15 major metropolitan areas.

“A low intensity storm in a population dense, residential urban area has the ability to do significantly more damage than a higher intensity hurricane along a sparsely inhabited coastline.”

The metro area that includes Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach continues to have the greatest number of at-risk homes (784,000) and an RCV of $143 billion.

On the other hand, the New York metro area has slightly fewer homes at risk (723,000), but a much higher RCV of $264 billion due to high construction costs and home values in this area.

CoreLogic’s analysis also shows local areas along the coasts are susceptible to potential damage that could exceed $1 billion for a single event.

Storm surge and other flooding is on the minds of many in 2017 as Congress considers reauthorization of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), CoreLogic says.

Flooding Events May Shift Prevention Strategies

Hurricane season has yet to begin and already record-setting flooding in parts of the central United States will likely become the country’s sixth billion-dollar disaster event of 2017.

While Missouri and Arkansas have been hit the hardest, recent flooding in the central U.S. has been widespread and it will likely take weeks before the full extent of flood damages is known.

So far, 2017 has seen five billion-dollar disaster events, including one flooding event, one freeze event, and 3 severe storm events, according to NOAA.

KSGF.com: “This year is off to a quick start for the number of billion-dollar weather disasters, similar to 2016 and 2011, which each had 15 and 16 disasters, respectively.”

Climate Central reports that many communities across the U.S. are not prepared for massive rain events and living behind a levee is not an absolute guarantee of protection.

“The growing realization of the lingering risk from levees is causing some rethinking of flood protection strategies in riverfront communities. This can include simply setting levees back from the risk and installing parkland that is intended to flood and provide rain-swollen rivers some breathing space, as well as preventing development in flood-prone areas.”

Last week’s breach of the local levee system in Pocahontas, Arkansas is a good example. Check out these aerial pics via the Capital Weather Gang.

Flood damage is excluded under standard homeowners and renters insurance policies. However, flood coverage is available in the form of a separate policy both from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and from a few private insurers.

I.I.I. facts and statistics on flood insurance has additional information.

What Does Private Market Flood Insurance Look Like?

In his second post from the Cat Risk Management 2017 conference, Insurance Information Institute chief actuary James Lynch discusses private market flood insurance options:

Florida has opened its market to private flood insurance, and there has been some activity in that area. Most plans have been National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) clones in that they mimic how the NFIP prices risk but introduce a lot of underwriting rules to try to avoid problem risks.

Other than mimicking the NFIP program, there are two alternative ways to price risk:

    • Develop a refined rating plan, which resembles (to me at least) a traditional classification plan. The company develops a base rate then credits and debits a risk based on factors like:
      • Elevation.
      • Relative elevation (whether a risk is higher or lower than the areas that immediately surround it).
      • Distance to coast.
      • Distance to river.
    • Use a sophisticated catastrophe model to price each risk individually. That approach is more precise, but it could be more difficult to pass regulatory approval.  (The model might be too much of a black box.) It could also be harder for agents to understand the model and explain it to clients.

Much of the industry long-term seems interested in how computer models can price flood risk, but most people recognize the challenges. A big one is how to build in the precision necessary.

Figuring out how far a property is from a river is easy. But it is hard to use Big Data techniques to determine something as simple as whether a property has a basement; let alone knowing the elevation of the lowest vulnerable point in a property. (Hint: It’s probably not the front threshold.)

Private Market Looks Closely At Flood Insurance

Almost all private insurers have shunned covering flood since the 1950s, but that could be changing fast, writes Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.) chief actuary James Lynch:

At the Cat Risk Management 2017 conference I attended earlier this month, flood was the hottest topic. Here’s why:

  • Insurers have become increasingly comfortable with using sophisticated models to underwrite insurance risk, and modeling firms are getting better at predicting flood risk.
  • The federal government, which insures the vast majority of flood risk, is looking for ways to share the risk with private industry. Key reasons:
    • The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) owes the Treasury more than $20 billion (thanks to flooding from Hurricane Katrina and superstorm Sandy). It has no practical way to pay that back, and the government has made it clear that it doesn’t want to fund more losses. So the NFIP is purchasing private reinsurance. More on that below.
    • The number of people who lack flood insurance is distressingly high. I.I.I. surveys show that only about 12 percent of Americans have flood insurance. The government wants people to be protected, and encouraging a private flood insurance market could do that.

Here are some of my notes from #catrisk17 on flood insurance:

  • The NFIP reinsurance deal (effective January 1, 2017) means that reinsurance would reimburse NFIP for 26 percent of the losses from an event where losses exceed $4 billion. The maximum recovery is $1.046 billion, and the cost, according to my notes, is $150 million. (If you work in reinsurance it may be easier to think of the pricing this way: NFIP cedes 26 percent of the $4 billion excess $4 billion occurrence layer at a 14.3 percent rate on line.) There have only been a couple of floods that big in NFIP history (Hurricane Katrina and superstorm Sandy), so the cover is in place primarily to protect against storm surge. However, it would cover other major types of flood as well.
  • A significant obstacle to modeling flood risk is the fact that much of the most important data (underwriting and claims information) is in the federal government’s hands. The government wants to share the data responsibly, but its hands are tied by federal rules on sharing data about individuals. The rules are driven both by privacy concerns and cyber security laws. The government will likely be developing a certification process so that professionals could qualify to have access to the data on a limited basis.
  • A live poll found that flood modeling was the most important topic at the conference, cited by 56 percent of respondents – outpacing severe convective (thunder) storm models, cyber insurance models or terrorism models.

Growing Insurance Resilience to Disasters

Latest estimates from Aon Benfield that just 50 percent of the U.S. losses from Hurricane Matthew are covered by public and private insurance renews the spotlight on the growing risk protection gap and disaster resilience.

In its latest Global Catastrophe Recap report, Aon Benfield’s Impact Forecasting unit expected total economic losses from Matthew would range up to a high of $10 billion. Public and private insurance losses were considerably less, estimated as high as $5 billion.

The reason for this is that a large portion of the inland flood loss in North Carolina went uninsured due to low take-up of the federally-backed National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), Aon said.

A post over at Artemis blog reports:

“Once again this demonstrates the insurance and reinsurance protection gap is not simply an emerging market issue, rather it is evident in perhaps the most mature property catastrophe insurance market in the world in the United States.”

Indeed, Swiss Re sigma has said the amount of financial loss caused by catastrophes not covered by insurance is growing.

This so-called global insurance protection or funding gap totaled $75 billion in 2014, according to Swiss Re.

A recent issue brief by Wharton Risk Center co-director Howard Kunreuther pointed to evidence showing that consumers tend to purchase too little insurance or purchase it too late.

As a result, it said, taxpayers wind up bearing substantial burdens for paying restoration costs from extreme events. The 2005 and 2012 hurricane seasons alone cost taxpayers nearly $150 billion.

The Wharton brief suggests there is much that can be done to better facilitate the role that insurance can play in addressing losses from extreme events, both natural and man-made.

To better meet its objectives, insurance must embody two guiding principles, first premiums must accurately reflect risk and secondly, to ensure equity and affordability, special financial assistance should be made available to homeowners who would no longer be able to afford their premiums.

More information on the protection gap problem in this Insurance Information Institute report Underinsurance of Property Risks: Closing the Gap.

I.I.I. facts and statistics on flood insurance are available here.

Hurricane Matthew: Early Loss Estimates and More

Early estimates put the insured property loss to U.S. residential and commercial properties from Hurricane Matthew at up to $6 billion.

While this figure covers wind and storm surge damage to about 1.5 million properties in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, CoreLogic’s estimate does not include insured losses related to additional flooding, business interruption or contents.

Parts of North Carolina are expected to remain under dangerous flood risk for at least the next three days, according to the state’s governor Pat McCrory in a report by the Capital Weather Gang blog.

As Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog reminds us, the potentially huge cost of damage caused by inland flooding is still unfolding.

The WunderBlog post suggests:

“A roughly comparable storm, Hurricane Floyd in 1999, produced about $9.5 billion in U.S. economic damage.”

And given the ongoing flooding across the Carolinas and southeast Virginia, that is a fair starting point for Hurricane Matthew, according to Wunderblog’s account of a conversation with Steve Bowen, director and meteorologist at Aon Benfield.

Catastrophe modeler RMS expects the losses to commercial lines will be the primary driver of total flood insured losses, predominately through multi-peril or all-risks policies.

In a blog post, Tom Sabbatelli, RMS hurricane expert noted:

“We expect that the contribution to insured losses by residential claims will be limited because a proportion of the residential property losses will be covered by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).”

As of July 31, 2016, there were approximately 417,000 NFIP policies in-force in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Penetration of NFIP coverage varies significantly by distance to the coastline, RMS said. While in coastal regions it can be as high as 25 percent in some areas, inland participation can be less than 1 percent.

“This means that although much of the storm surge-driven coastal flood losses will be covered to some extent by the NFIP, many flood-related losses further inland are expected to be uninsured.”

Ratings agency Fitch has said that the insured loss from Hurricane Matthew “is not expected to present a major capital challenge” to the industry.

Fitch estimates that if the storm results in insured losses in excess of $10 billion, a greater proportion of losses will be borne by reinsurers as opposed to primary companies.

More than 30 fatalities have been attributed to Hurricane Matthew in the U.S. alone, but in Haiti the rising death toll is now more than 1,000.

Hurricane Matthew became post-tropical on Sunday, after heading eastward from the North Carolina coast out to sea.

The Insurance Information Institute offer the following tips for filing an insurance claim in the wake of Hurricane Matthew.

 

Hurricane Matthew: Storm Surge Risk

Almost 2 million homes in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia are at risk of storm surge damage from Hurricane Matthew with an estimated $405 billion in total reconstruction cost value, according to new analysis from CoreLogic.

Here’s the CoreLogic graphic showing the total number and value of residential properties at risk of storm surge damage from Hurricane Matthew by state:

screen-shot-2016-10-07-at-11-21-12-am

The estimates come as Hurricane Matthew, still a major Category 3 storm packing 120 mph winds, continues its northward trek brushing along Florida’s northeast coast Friday, with its eye remaining just offshore.

In its latest advisory, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move away from the U.S. on Sunday, though it is forecast to weaken during the next 48 hours.

A hurricane warning now stretches as far as Surf City, North Carolina.

The NHC said:

“The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.”

And:

“There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Salvo, North Carolina.”

Here’s the 11am NHC prototype storm surge watch/warning graphic, showing locations most at risk for life-threatening inundation from storm surge extend from Florida to North Carolina:

screen-shot-2016-10-07-at-11-18-04-am

It’s important to note that flood damage resulting from heavy rain, storm surge and hurricanes is excluded under standard homeowners, renters and business insurance policies.

Separate flood coverage is available, however, from FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and from a few private insurers.

Flood damage to cars would be covered under the optional comprehensive portion of an auto insurance policy.

The NHC has a storm surge inundation map which means anyone living in hurricane-prone coastal areas along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts can now check out and evaluate their own unique risk to storm surge.

Insurance Information Institute experts are available to discuss the insurance implications of Hurricane Matthew.

Check out the I.I.I. facts and statistics on flood insurance.