Tag Archives: National Hurricane Center

NHC warns on rainfall and flooding from Tropical Storm Cindy

Heavy rainfall due to Tropical Storm Cindy is expected to produce flash flooding across parts of southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected in those areas, the NHC says.

On Tuesday, Alabama Governor Kay Ivey declared a statewide state of emergency in preparation for severe weather and warned residents to be prepared for potential flood conditions.

FEMA flood safety and preparation tips are here.

Flood damage is excluded under standard homeowners and renters insurance policies. However, flood coverage is available in the form of a separate policy both from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and from a few private insurers.

Insurance Information Institute flood insurance facts and statistics show that the number of flood insurance policies increased in Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi after 2005’s Hurricane Katrina.

Here are the numbers:

Another Named Storm?

Forecasters’ Twitter feeds are alight this morning as to the potential development of two systems in the tropical Atlantic.

Here’s the latest graphic of where they’re located, courtesy of the National Hurricane Center (NHC):

two_atl_5d0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NHC gives the first disturbance currently located several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands a 50 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days.

The second disturbance, a tropical wave located 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, has a low (20 percent) chance of tropical storm formation in the next five days.

Over at Weather Underground, Dr. Jeff Masters noted that if the first disturbance (designated Invest 96L by the NHC) does develop, it would likely be similar to Tropical Storm Bertha of early August while it is in the Caribbean–a weak and disorganized system that struggles against dry air.

Meanwhile @EricHolthaus tweets that Invest 96L could be a tropical threat to the U.S. next week, based on the first model runs.

It’s still too early to tell, but Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 96L Thursday afternoon if necessary.

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on hurricanes.

And a shout-out to   Paul Dzielinski of The Dec Page who hosts Calvalcade of Risk #215 Dog Days of Summer edition here.

Hurricane Season: Out of Sight, But Not Out of Mind

While a number of U.S. websites and Twitter feeds are unavailable because of the government shutdown, it’s important to remember that the Atlantic hurricane season is still in progress.

Even more important when you consider that last year’s season looked like it was wrapping up when Hurricane Sandy, struck the East Coast October 28-31. Note: Sandy was the third costliest hurricane in U.S. history.

A tweet by FEMA administrator Craig Fugate late Wednesday directed us to the latest Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). See graphic below:

 

According to the NHC, showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea have become better organized and the system has a high chance – 70 percent – of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Over at Wunderblog, Dr. Jeff Masters says of the disturbance:

I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 – 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 – 6″ can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.†

Meanwhile, the NHC  has  been  issuing advisories for Tropical Storm Jerry, though at this time it is nearly stationary over the central Atlantic and far from land.

Read up on hurricane facts and statistics over at the I.I.I.