Tag Archives: NOAA

Flooding Events May Shift Prevention Strategies

Hurricane season has yet to begin and already record-setting flooding in parts of the central United States will likely become the country’s sixth billion-dollar disaster event of 2017.

While Missouri and Arkansas have been hit the hardest, recent flooding in the central U.S. has been widespread and it will likely take weeks before the full extent of flood damages is known.

So far, 2017 has seen five billion-dollar disaster events, including one flooding event, one freeze event, and 3 severe storm events, according to NOAA.

KSGF.com: “This year is off to a quick start for the number of billion-dollar weather disasters, similar to 2016 and 2011, which each had 15 and 16 disasters, respectively.”

Climate Central reports that many communities across the U.S. are not prepared for massive rain events and living behind a levee is not an absolute guarantee of protection.

“The growing realization of the lingering risk from levees is causing some rethinking of flood protection strategies in riverfront communities. This can include simply setting levees back from the risk and installing parkland that is intended to flood and provide rain-swollen rivers some breathing space, as well as preventing development in flood-prone areas.”

Last week’s breach of the local levee system in Pocahontas, Arkansas is a good example. Check out these aerial pics via the Capital Weather Gang.

Flood damage is excluded under standard homeowners and renters insurance policies. However, flood coverage is available in the form of a separate policy both from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and from a few private insurers.

I.I.I. facts and statistics on flood insurance has additional information.

Atlantic Hurricane Season: The Long View

As the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season officially draws to a close just days after Hurricane Otto became the latest calendar year Atlantic hurricane on record to make landfall, the question on everyone’s lips is: are the seasons growing longer?

For if Otto, which struck southern Nicaragua as a Category 2 over Thanksgiving, is the last hurricane of the 2016 season, it will mark the end to the longest hurricane season on record the Atlantic Ocean has seen, according to NOAA.

The 2016 season had an early beginning—well ahead of its June 1 official start—when Hurricane Alex became the first Atlantic hurricane in January since Hurricane Alice in 1955.

At 75 knots, Alex was also the second strongest Atlantic hurricane on record in January, after 1955’s Alice at 80 knots, according to the 2016 season summary by Phil Klotzbach, head of Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.

Regardless of whether this points to any long-term trend, it does appear that residents in hurricane-prone areas should keep an eye on the tropics year-round, not just in the June 1-November 30 window.

In the end, the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season was somewhat above average. As CSU’s summary outlines:

“The season was characterized by somewhat above-average named storms and major hurricanes, with slightly above-average hurricane numbers.”

The final tally was 15 named storms, including seven hurricanes, of which three were major hurricanes.

Three tropical storms (Bonnie, Colin and Julia) and two hurricanes (Hermine and Matthew) made U.S. landfall this year, according to NOAA.

There were a number of key takeaways, according to CSU, not least that a total of 78.25 named storm days and 26.25 hurricane days occurred in 2016—the most in an individual Atlantic hurricane season since 2012.

The 9.75 major hurricane days that occurred in 2016 are also the most in a single Atlantic hurricane season since 2010.

Florida’s record-long hurricane drought at 3,966 days ended when Hermine made landfall in the Big Bend of Florida on September 2.

Meanwhile, Matthew became the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Felix (2007).

No major hurricanes made United States landfall in 2016, although Hurricane Matthew came within about 50 miles of breaking this streak, CSU notes:

“The last major hurricane to make U.S. landfall was Wilma (2005), so the U.S. has now gone 11 years without a major hurricane landfall. The U.S. has never had another 11-year period without a major hurricane landfall since records began in 1851.”

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on hurricanes here.

Preparing for Colder Weather

As some parts of the Northeast experience their first frost/freeze of the season, this is a good time to make some cold weather preparations.

NOAA’s recently issued U.S. Winter Outlook said the development of La Niña, the climate phenomenon and counterpart of El Niño, is expected to influence winter conditions this year.

La Niña favors drier, warmer winters in the southern U.S. and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S. but because forecasters expect it to be weak and short-lived, we probably shouldn’t bet against snow.

screen-shot-2016-10-26-at-10-05-18-am

Other factors that often play a role in the winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and create nor’easters on the East Coast, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can affect the number of heavy rain events in the Pacific Northwest.

NOAA explains that its seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations.

“Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. However, La Niña winters tend to favor above average snowfall around the Great Lakes and in the northern Rockies and below average snowfall in the mid-Atlantic.”

Whatever the outlook (and some forecasters have a different take on how this winter may turn out), it pays to be prepared. As Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, says:

“Regardless of the outlook there is always some chance for extreme winter weather, so prepare now for what might come later this winter.”

The Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety has resources on how to protect homes and businesses from winter weather damage here.

Winter storms are historically very expensive for insurers, and the third-largest cause of catastrophe losses, behind hurricanes and tornadoes, the Insurance Information Institute reports.

US Cat Losses By Cause of Loss

Winter storms caused an estimated $3.5 billion in insured losses in 2015, up from $2.6 billion in 2014, according to Munich Re.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Off to Early Start

Whichever way you slice it, NOAA’s just-released outlook for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season appears to suggest we’re on track for more hurricane activity than we’ve seen in a while.

NOAA predicts a 70 percent chance of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

It calls for a 45 percent chance of a near-normal season, but there is also a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season. The likelihood of a below-normal season is at 25 percent.

NOAA2016AtlanticHurricaneOutlook

In the words of Dr Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center:

“This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it’s difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development.

“However, a near-normal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we’ve seen in the last three years, which were below normal.”

To put that in context, the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active and tied with 1887, 1995, 2010 and 2011 for having the third-most named storms on record.

Insurers paid out more than $26 billion in hurricane losses that year, including Superstorm Sandy which caused $19 billion in insured property losses.

With Bonnie threatening to develop into a tropical storm over the Memorial Day weekend, the Atlantic could have its second storm before the official start of hurricane season, which starts June 1, as the Insurance Information Institute reminds us here.

Bear in mind that NOAA’s outlook includes Hurricane Alex, a pre-season storm that formed over the far eastern Atlantic in January.

With El Niño dissipating, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 70 percent chance that La Niña— which favors more hurricane activity — will be present during the peak months of hurricane season, August through October.

However, current model predictions show uncertainty as to how strong La Niña and its impacts will be.

Check out this earlier post over at Artemis blog about the potential impact of La Niña.

As we’ve said before, regardless of predictions and outlooks it pays to be prepared and this year’s hurricane season is no different.

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on hurricanes.

Storm Surge: The Trillion Dollar Risk

More than 6.6 million homes on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are at risk of hurricane-driven storm surge with a total reconstruction cost value (RCV) of nearly $1.5 trillion.

The latest annual analysis from CoreLogic finds that the Atlantic Coast has more than 3.8 million homes at risk of storm surge in 2015 with a total projected reconstruction cost value of $939 billion, while the Gulf Coast has just under 2.8 million homes at risk and nearly $549 billion in potential exposure.

Which states have the highest total number of properties at risk?

Six states–Florida, Louisiana, New York, New Jersey, Texas and Virginia—account for more than three-quarters of all at-risk homes across the United States. Florida has the highest total number of properties at various risk levels (2.5 million), followed by Louisiana (769,272), New York (464,534), New Jersey (446,148), Texas (441, 304) and Virginia (420,052).

But if you rank the states by the highest total projected reconstruction costs in 2015, the top five are: Florida ($491.1 billion), New York ($177.4 billion), Louisiana ($162.1 billion), New Jersey ($126.8 billion) and Virginia ($91.1 billion).

CoreLogic makes the point that even though Louisiana has the second highest number of homes at risk to storm surge in 2015, only one-quarter are in the extreme or very high storm surge category, due in large part to the upgrade and expansion of levees in the state in the 10 years since Hurricane Katrina.

As Dr. Tom Jeffery, senior hazard risk scientist for CoreLogic says:

The number of hurricanes each year is less important than the location of where the next hurricane will come ashore. It only takes one hurricane that pushes storm surge into a major metropolitan area for the damage to tally in the billions of dollars. With new home construction, and any amount of sea-level rise, the number of homes at risk of storm surge damage will continue to increase.”

CoreLogic’s analysis comes as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) debuts experimental storm surge watch and warning graphics for the 2015 hurricane season:

ssgraphic_imagery_neworleans_300

Storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property in the event of a hurricane. While most coastal residents can remain in their homes and stay safe from a storm’s winds, evacuations are generally needed to keep people safe from storm surge, the NHC says.

It’s important to note that many properties located outside designated FEMA flood zones are still at risk for storm surge damage.

As CoreLogic reminds us, homeowners who live outside the FEMA flood zones frequently do not carry flood insurance, given that there is no mandate to do so, and therefore may not be aware of the potential risk storm surge poses to their properties.

Data in the full CoreLogic report can be found here.

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on flood insurance here.

NOAA: Extreme Cold and Snow Unlikely This Winter

Winter storms caused $1.9 billion in insured losses in 2013, five times higher than the $38 million in damages seen in 2012, so it’s good to read via NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook that a repeat of last year’s winter of record cold and snow is unlikely.

In a release, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says:

Last year’s winter was exceptionally cold and snowy across most of the United States, east of the Rockies. A repeat of this extreme pattern is unlikely this year, although the Outlook does favor below-average temperatures in the south-central and southeastern states.”

While the South may experience a colder winter, the Outlook favors warmer-than-average temperatures in the western U.S., Alaska, Hawaii and New England, according to NOAA.

It’s important to note that for insurers, winter storms are historically very expensive and the third-largest cause of catastrophe losses, behind only hurricanes and tornadoes, according to the Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.).

From 1994 to 2013, winter storms resulted in about $26.6 billion in insured losses, or $1.4 billion a year, on average, according to the Property Claim Services unit of ISO.

Outlook_map_temp2014F

Meanwhile, NOAA’s Winter Outlook also suggests that California’s record-setting drought will persist or intensify in large parts of the state this winter.

Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, says:

Complete drought recovery in California this winter is highly unlikely. While we’re predicting at least a 2 in 3 chance that winter precipitation will be near or above normal throughout the state, with such widespread, extreme deficits, recovery will be slow.”

Why a Below-Normal Hurricane Forecast Doesn’t Matter

Forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now say the chances of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season have increased to 70 percent, up from 50 percent in May.

In its updated outlook, NOAA said overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are not favorable for storm development will persist through the season.

Check out the revised numbers in this NOAA graphic:

However, coastal residents may want to heed the words of NOAA lead forecaster Dr. Gerry Bell:

Tropical storms and hurricanes can strike the U.S. during below-normal seasons, as we have already seen this year when Arthur made landfall in North Carolina as a category-2 hurricane. We urge everyone to remain prepared and be on alert throughout the season.”

This echoes the warning of others. After all, it only takes one landfalling hurricane for a season to go from below-active to active for coastal residents.

In a recent post Weather.com gave the classic examples of 1992 and 1983:

The 1992 season produced only six named storms and one subtropical storm. However, one of those named storms was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane. In 1983 there were only four named storms, but one of them was Alicia. The Category 3 hurricane hit the Houston-Galveston area and caused almost as many direct fatalities there as Andrew did in South Florida.”

The $15.5 billion in estimated property losses ($23.4 billion in 2013 dollars) paid out by insurers for Hurricane Andrew ranks second in a PCS chart via the I.I.I. of the 10 most costly hurricanes in U.S. history, after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

If Hurricane Andrew were to occur today, Karen Clark & Company estimates insured property losses would total $57 billion, based on current exposures.

NOAA: Near-Normal Hurricane Season Expected

With just over a week to go until the start of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA’s outlook  is hot off the press and garnering a lot of attention.

Here’s NOAA’s take on the season by the numbers:

â–  NOAA is calling for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.

â–  NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

â–  These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010.

What are the reasons behind NOAA’s predictions for a near-normal or below-normal season?

A key driver of this year’s outlook is the anticipated development of El Nià ±o this summer that is expected to cause stronger wind shear which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures this season also suggest fewer hurricanes, NOAA says.

Despite the prognosis for a below-normal or near-normal season, it’s important that coastal residents don’t underestimate the hurricane threat. As Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA administrator says:

Even though we expect El Nià ±o to suppress the number of storms this season, it’s important to remember it takes only one land falling storm to cause a disaster.†

Note: NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook is not a hurricane landfall forecast and does not predict how many storms will hit land or where a storm will strike.

For a round-up of the latest predictions from the major hurricane forecasters check out this post at Dr. Jeff Masters’ Wunderblog.

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on hurricanes here.

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Roundup

As the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season comes to a close, it may be easy to dismiss the significance of this year’s season.

While it’s true that this year had the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982, the 2013 hurricane season was only the third below-normal season in the last 19 years, since 1995, when the current high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes began, according to forecasters.

A NOAA press release quotes Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service:

A combination of conditions acted to offset several climate patterns that historically have produced active hurricane seasons. As a result, we did not see the large numbers of hurricanes that typically accompany these climate patterns.†

A total of 13 named storms formed in the Atlantic basin this year, NOAA reports, but only two, Ingrid and Humberto, became hurricanes. Neither of these storms became a major hurricane (Category 3, winds of 111-129 mph and above).

Although the number of named storms was above the average of 12, the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes were well below their averages of six and three, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.) and the Florida Insurance Council (FIC) remind us that while Florida has escaped hurricane damage for eight consecutive years, insurers are prepared for the state’s severe weather history to repeat itself.

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on hurricanes.

#2: Tropical Storm Barry

As Tropical Storm Barry, the second named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed yesterday in the southern Gulf of Mexico, ahead of landfall early today  near the city of  Veracruz, Mexico, we can’t help but wonder isn’t it a bit early?

Fortunately, one of our favorite blogs has some interesting facts and stats  on early season tropical storms.

Dr. Jeff Masters’ Wunderblog tells us that Barry’s formation date of June 19 is a full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season’s second storm.

Dr. Masters also reminds us:

The formation of two Gulf of Mexico storms so early in the year does not necessarily suggest that we will have an active hurricane season. June storms forming in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are typically a harbinger of an active hurricane season though.†

Dr. Masters adds that only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968.

With 10 days left in June, we’ll have to wait and see if 2013 joins this list.

As we previously reported, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year.

This means there is a 70 percent chance of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to six major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

Check out I.I.I. facts and stats on hurricanes.