Tag Archives: Teen Drivers

More On Employment and Claim Frequency

Earlier this month Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.) chief actuary Jim Lynch linked teen employment to the spike in claim frequency. I.I.I. chief economist Steven Weisbart responds:

I think Jim’s post draws the wrong inference from the data. Specifically, the slide pairs the drop in the teenage unemployment rate with the rise in overall collision claim frequency. He infers that if teens are not unemployed, they’re employed and, presumably, driving to work.

But the drop in the unemployment rate of this age group isn’t solely—or even mainly—because they’ve taken jobs. To start with, in 2006-07, there were seven million people ages 16 to 19 in the labor force. That began falling in 2008, crossing six million in 2010 and plateauing at about 5.6 million midway through 2011. So in the space of less than five years, about 1.5 million people ages 16-19 disappeared from the labor force.

In contrast, the number unemployed in this age range dropped from about 1.1 million in 2006-07 to about 0.9 million in 2015. So about 200,000 got jobs. Some who had been in the labor force in 2006-07 must have gone to school, joined the military, were imprisoned, or simply gave up looking for a job (and therefore were not considered to be in the labor force).

If, instead, you look at the number in this age group who were employed in this period, it was 6 million in 2006-07, dropped to 4.3 million in mid-2010, rose to 4.5 million by mid-2014, and was 4.75 million in 2015:Q4. So the number of people in this age group who were employed is still 1.25 million below what it was before the Great Recession and subsequently.

I’ve put together a different slide (below), showing the change in employment and the change in claim frequency. As the number of employed falls with the Great Recession, so does claim frequency. And as employment numbers climb, so does claim frequency.

Employment and Collisions

So I’d say that Jim has a good explanation for the spike in the number of claims; more people get jobs, start driving to and from work and unfortunately get into accidents more often.

But it wasn’t just teen workers. It was everybody.

Too Fast, Too Young

Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.) chief actuary James Lynch brings us a cautionary tale from  the open road:

It’s a gritty drive from Los Angeles to San Francisco as I learned with my wife and older daughter this summer — a climb through dry mountains, then across the nation’s Salad Bowl, the San Joaquin Valley, passing strings of tractor-trailers headed up the interstate toward Sacramento and cow country.

Like most tourists, we left the trailers behind by turning west on state Route 46. My wife drove. We passed a thicket of oil derricks and, frankly, not much else. The roads were well-designed and well-kept. Everyone drove fast. Far off we saw the hills that would lead us to Highway 101 and north again.

We came upon what, for that desolate place, was a major intersection — a flashing yellow light and a lane that let oncoming traffic turn left in front of us. A line of cars waited to make that left. Daylight was fading, and it was hard to pick out exactly how many wanted to turn or whether any had begun to.

“That looks like a dangerous spot,” I said.

Then we saw the sign: James Dean Memorial Junction.

Yeah. Right there, 60 years ago — September 30, 1955 — actor James Dean was cruising maybe 85 in his Porsche Spyder when Donald Turnupseed turned left. In moments Dean went from an astounding actor (East of Eden, Rebel Without a Cause, Giant) to a roadside tragedy.

He wasn’t a teen-ager, but he was a teen idol squeezed between the Sinatra and Elvis eras, and now his case is one I can’t help but think of as that older daughter baby-steps toward her first license this fall.

2015 09 25 cholame

 

James Dean Memorial Junction still seems dodgy, but overall driving is much safer. The accident rate has fallen on average about 1 percent a year for decades. But long-term trends have statistical blips. We are in one now.

As we at the I.I.I. note in our Facts and Statistics on highway safety, traffic fatalities at mid-year are 14 percent higher than the same period last year, according to National Safety Council estimates. The economy has improved. People are driving more and perhaps less safely — faster, more texting.

The third week in October is National Teen Driver Safety Week, an event my daughter will be made well aware of, but this year we should all heed its message: Be careful behind the wheel.