Tag Archives: TSR

Prepare The Same For Every Hurricane Season

Early 2017 Atlantic hurricane forecasts are predicting fewer storms, but here’s why coastal residents shouldn’t let their guard down.

Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project: “Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

London’s TSR (Tropical Storm Risk): The precision of hurricane outlooks issued in April is low and large uncertainties remain for the 2017 hurricane season.

Forecasters believe development of potential El Niño conditions in the coming months will suppress storm activity.

What are the numbers?

CSU: 11 named storms, with 4 hurricanes and 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes. The median between 1981 and 2000 was 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes and two major hurricanes. U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated at 80 percent of the long-period average.

TSR: 11 named storms, with 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. 2017 Atlantic hurricane activity will be 30 percent below 1950-2016 long-term average.

I.I.I. hurricane facts and statistics here, plus information on flood insurance here.

Following Insuring Florida blog for more on hurricane preparedness.

Latest Hurricane Forecasts Sound Warning for U.S. East Coast

Hurricane forecasters are sounding a warning bell for the U.S. East coast in their latest predictions for the 2014 hurricane season, even as overall tropical storm activity is predicted to be much-less than normal.

WeatherBell Analytics says the very warm water off of the Eastern Seaboard is a concern, along with the oncoming El Nià ±o conditions.

In its latest commentary forecaster Joe Bastardi and the WeatherBell team notes:

We think this is a challenging year, one that has a greater threat of higher intensity storms closer to the coast, and, where like 2012, warnings will frequently be issued with the first official NHC advisory.†

WeatherBell Analytics is calling for a total of 8 to 10 named storms, with 3-5 hurricanes and 1-2 major hurricanes.

According to WeatherBell, there have been plenty of El Nià ±o years with high impact seasons for the U.S. coast: 1957, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1983 (fading but still there), 1991, 1992, 2002, and 2004.

The forecasters say this pattern favors stronger storms (relative to normals) in-close to the U.S. rather than in the deep tropics which will have less to much-less than normal activity this year.

There is nothing to prohibit another Sandy-type hit from the southeast or three storms up the East Coast in one year despite a relatively low number of named storms in a season.†

Check out this post by Eric Holthaus over at Slate’s Future Tense blog for his take on how this year’s El Nià ±o could grow into a monster.

Meanwhile, London-based consortium Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has lowered its forecast and predicts Atlantic hurricane activity in 2014 will be about 25 percent below the 1950-2013 long-term norm and about 40 percent below the recent 2004-2013 10-year norm.

In its updated forecast TSR is calling for 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major (Category 3 and higher) hurricanes.

TSR says two key factors in its forecast for below-normal activity are: lighter trade winds over the Caribbean and North Atlantic coinciding with the likely development of a moderate El Nià ±o; and cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR says both these predictors will have a moderately suppressing effect on activity.

A post over at Artemis blog  points out that while El Nià ±o typically results in a below average hurricane season in terms of the number of storms that form, that is no guarantee of a benign season in terms of catastrophic losses as that is down to the strength or severity and path of any storms that do form.

Updated forecasts will be released around June 1, when hurricane season opens.

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on hurricanes.

Experts Say Above Average Hurricane Season Still Likely

While three of the major hurricane forecasters have reduced by a smidgen their predictions for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, the season as a whole is still expected to be above-average as is the chance of a major hurricane making U.S. landfall.

Bear in mind that to-date the 2013 season has seen four named storms (Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dorian) – none of which reached hurricane status.

Here’s how the revised forecasts stack up:

Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project now predicts 18 named tropical storms, including eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3-4-5). This is down slightly from its June forecast which called for 18 named storms, including nine hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The CSU team also continues its call for above-average probability of a major hurricane making U.S. or Caribbean landfall.

London-based consortium Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) is calling for 14.8 named tropical storms, 6.9 hurricanes, of which three will be intense. This is down from its early June forecast which called for 15.6 named storms, 7.7 hurricanes including 3.5 major hurricanes.  TSR predicts North Atlantic and U.S. hurricane activity in 2013 will be about 20 percent above the long-term (1950-2012) norm.

WSI (Weather Services International Corp) has also reduced its forecast numbers slightly, to 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and three intense hurricanes, compared to its earlier forecast of 16/9/4. WSI noted that North Atlantic temperatures have not warmed as fast as expected this summer, and if current trends persist, it may have to reduce these numbers even further.

Artemis blog has a round-up of the numbers on its 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season page.

Check out I.I.I. facts and stats on hurricanes.