Entries tagged with “Workers Comp”.


Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.) chief actuary James Lynch is on the road.

Spring is heavy conference season. I type this from an Orlando hotel room on May 14, after day one of the Annual Issues Symposium put on by the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI). Ahead are trips to Colorado, Philadelphia and Atlanta, as well as two meetings close to home, in New York.

The NCCI conference is perhaps best known for president and chief executive officer Steve Klingel’s summary of the workers compensation line in a single word or phrase. This year: Calm now . . . but turbulence ahead. With premium up 4.6 percent and the combined ratio (98) at its lowest since 2006, workers comp results have been good, but outside pressures could make the ride bumpy.

One pressure is low interest rates. Years can pass from the time an insurer collects premium and injury claims get paid, and insurers in the meantime invest that premium, with the proceeds helping pay for claims and bolstering profits.

Interest rates have been so low for so long that the industry can’t rely on interest rates to deliver results anymore.

Another is the sharing economy. As Dr. Robert Hartwig, president of the I.I.I. and an economist, noted later that day, the smartphone has made it easy to summon people to do ad hoc jobs, with the best known being Uber’s ride-sharing battalion.

Those workers are independent contractors (though that has been challenged) and as such don’t get traditional benefits, including workers comp coverage. As the sharing economy grows, workers comp could shrink.

The third is a series of attacks on the basic principles of workers compensation. News reports suggest workers comp doesn’t compensate injuries equitably; lawsuits suggest the line has violated the Grand Bargain that gives up a big tort payoff in exchange for a steady flow of benefits; and a nascent movement would let employers opt out of the workers compensation system altogether.

But workers comp has survived a lot in the century since it took hold in the United States and seems well-equipped to handle the, well, turbulence.

“While I am confident that we will work our way through these challenges,” Klingel said, “it is important to be realistic about current conditions and to recognize that the current positive results may not last.”

The I.I.I. has more workers comp facts and statistics available here.

I.I.I. chief actuary Jim Lynch brings us some surprising numbers on America’s addiction to opioids:

Americans are grossly misinformed about the dangers of opioid drugs, according to a recent survey by the National Safety Council (NSC).

Opioids are commonly prescribed painkillers like Vicodin, OxyContin and Percocet. The drugs are meant to mimic the nervous system actions of heroin and morphine and all too often lead to similar levels of addiction and suffering. More than 170,000 Americans have died from opioid overdoses this century, nearly triple the number of U.S. military deaths in Vietnam (see my earlier post).

I wrote about the epidemic in Contingencies magazine, focusing on the toll the drugs have taken in the workers compensation system.

Too few Americans are aware of this risk, according to the survey of 1,014 adults, reported in the March 24 edition of Workers’ Compensation Report. Just one in five considered opioids to be a serious safety threat. Only 12 percent said addiction was a concern; two-thirds were unconcerned about any side effects from the drugs.

Education is part of the problem. Only 29 percent of respondents said they had taken or been prescribed an opioid in the past three years, though the number jumped to 42 percent once they were provided with a list of common opioids.

Nearly 60 percent of users had at least one addiction risk factor. Common risk factors include alcoholism, depression, use of psychiatric medication or being the victim of physical, mental or sexual abuse.

Users held opioids in high esteem. For example, 78 percent said they were the fastest method of pain relief, 74 percent said they were stronger pain relievers than alternative prescriptions, and 71 percent said they were the best way to relieve pain.

They underestimate the risk. Though 16,235 people died from prescription drug overdoses in 2013, just 19 percent of survey respondents said they had major concerns about the risk of injury or death from the drugs.

That’s less concern than they had about injury or death from severe weather or a natural disaster, from which 586 people died in 2013, and about the same level of concern as riding in a commercial airliner in the U.S., an activity that in 2013 killed eight, roughly 0.5 percent as many as opioids.

Details on the NSC survey can be found here.

Here’s a simple chart that compares the number of people killed in the opioid epidemic from 2000 to 2013 with the number of soldiers killed in the Vietnam theater, writes I.I.I. chief actuary Jim Lynch.

2015.03.20 LYNCH opioid graphic

Opioids are legally prescribed drugs designed to safely mimic the painkilling effects of heroin and morphine. They have not proved as safe as had been hoped.

The drugs killed more than 170,000 over 14 years, about three times as many as this country lost in Vietnam. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provides the data for opioids, and Vietnam statistics come from the Congressional Research Service (CRS) and National Archives.

I compare the epidemic to warfare because I became aware of the issue at a 2014 Workers Compensation Research Institute (WCRI) conference, when a Boston poll noted (if memory serves) that for every Massachusetts fatality in Iraq or Afghanistan, there were eight opioid victims. It’s also valuable, I think, to compare the War on Drugs with the more traditional battlefront.

Sometimes opioids like OxyContin, Vicodin and Percocet are referred to with the general term narcotics, as I did in an article for Contingencies magazine that traced the epidemic’s impact on workers compensation insurance:

Chances are good that if you’ve made a workers comp claim, you’ve had opioids in [your] medicine cabinet. Narcotics made up 25 percent of workers comp drug costs, according to the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI), and more than 45 percent of narcotics costs pay for drugs containing oxycodone.”

There is some relatively good news. Opioid deaths appear to have peaked in 2010 at 16,917, the CDC reported last month. In 2013 the toll was 16,235.

By contrast, 16,899 died in Vietnam in 1968, the most violent year of the war. So the opioid epidemic has leveled off to deliver tragedy as frequently as the worst year of the Vietnam War.

On another front the news is not good. Opioid addicts often turn to heroin when their prescriptions run out, and the number of heroin-related deaths rose 39 percent last year, to 8,257, the CDC reports. That’s in addition to the opioid toll.

Together, opioids and heroin killed 215,031 between 2000 and 2013, about 80 percent more than the approximately 120,000 U.S. military deaths since World War II.

I.I.I. chief actuary Jim Lynch reports from the Workers Compensation Research Institute (WCRI) annual conference:

An important cost-control mechanism of the Affordable Care Act could end up annually shifting hundreds of millions of claim dollars into the workers compensation system, preliminary research by the Workers Compensation Research Institute (WCRI) indicates.

The mechanism is the Accountable Care Organization (ACO), and WCRI researchers used the ACO’s similarity to Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) to estimate the nature of the cost shift as well as give a general idea of its magnitude.

An ACO is a network of doctors and hospitals that share the financial and medical responsibility for a group of patients. The ACO receives a set amount per patient for a year, regardless of the services each patient receives, a structure known as a capitated plan. HMOs are another type of capitated plan. The difference: an ACO can be paid more if it saves money while providing high quality care.

This difference gives some health experts hope that ACOs can rein in healthcare costs better than HMOs do. They believe healthcare will respond to the profit incentive ACOs offer.

The Affordable Care Act encourages ACOs and other capitated plans.

WCRI’s research indicates that capitated plans tend to push sprains, strains and other soft tissue injuries into the workers compensation system, WCRI Executive Director Richard Victor told about 300 attendees at the organization’s annual conference in Boston on March 5.

Often it is hard to tell exactly what caused a strain like a sore back, Victor said. It may have come while at work or at home. Usually the classification is the doctor’s decision.

In an ACO or any other sort of capitated plan, the doctor has a choice: call the injury work-related and bill the workers compensation insurer or decline to do so and collect no additional fee. The financial incentive is obvious.

The WCRI study looked at a nationwide sample of more than 700,000 claims from 2008 to 2010, about 17 percent of which came from HMOs. It classified states into two buckets, depending on how prevalent HMOs were.

In states with a relatively large HMO presence, HMO doctors put 26 percent of soft tissue injuries into workers comp. That was 30 percent more often than doctors in traditional fee for service arrangements.

For injuries like a broken arm, where it was easy to know what caused the injury, HMO and fee-for-service doctors put about the same percentage of claims into workers comp.

States with fewer HMOs didn’t exhibit the same shifting, the study indicated.

It is harder to estimate the financial impact, because it’s hard to say how popular ACOs will become. To develop an estimate, Victor hypothesized that ACOs could increase the percentage of workers in capitated plans by 25 percentage points. Such an increase would allow capitation plans to regain the 15 percentage points of market share they have lost since 2000 and then some.

Under that scenario, cost shifting in Illinois would push $90 million of claims into workers comp. In Pennsylvania, the shift would cost workers comp insurers $55 million.

Next week Jim Lynch will be in Boston for the annual conference of an I.I.I. subscriber, the Workers Compensation Research Institute (WCRI). Here’s his preview:

WCRI is known for its painstakingly objective analyses of workers comp trends in more than a dozen large states. Lately mainstream media have noticed WCRI, particularly this New York Times article, in which researchers found that when the prices of common dosages for back pain were capped, California doctors switched to dosages whose prices were not capped. This allowed them to charge about five times more per pill.

Physicians tend to charge considerably more than pharmacies when they dispense drugs, a phenomenon WCRI studies regularly. The costs and consequences of physician prescriptions is one of the main topics of the first morning of next week’s conference. (Registration and other details here.)

Day Two will feature a topic in which I’ve become more interested in recent weeks – the ability to opt out of the workers comp environment entirely.

For about a century workers comp has been a pact that has bound employers to employees in liability law. Workers give up their right to sue if they are injured on the job. Employers agree to pay for all injuries at work, regardless of how they occurred.

For decades Texas was the only state that didn’t follow these rules. Employers could opt out of the system, but they lost the considerable common law defenses employers usually enjoy. Workers’ Comp Insider has a nice overview of the Texas system.

In 2014 Oklahoma became the second opt-out state. Tennessee lawmakers have proposed their state become the third, even as Oklahoma’s law faces a constitutional challenge, as Business Insurance reports.

At the WCRI conference opt-out will get a hearing. A representative from retailer Nordstrom, which supports opt-out measures, will discuss the matter with an AFL-CIO representative and one from PartnerSource, a company that helps successfully opt-out.

Follow my live-tweeting of the conference @III_Research and check back for another blog post.

Update: Aw, shucks. I learned early Thursday that the opt-out session at the WCRI conference has been canceled. I’ll still be going to the conference.

I.I.I. offers facts and statistics on workers compensation.

I.I.I. chief actuary Jim Lynch previews the Workers Compensation Research Institute’s (WCRI) Annual Issues & Research conference:

This time last year, property/casualty insurers worried how the Affordable Care Act’s rollout would affect workers compensation insurance. The debate seemed to disappear as the law took hold, but research to be unveiled at a March workers compensation conference in Boston might return the issue to the limelight.

The big fear a year ago was cost-shifting, and both health insurers and comp insurers felt costs would be shifted onto them. The issue was the borderline claim, one that could arguably be a health claim or a comp claim.

Consider a person with a lingering back injury. The injury could have been caused by heavy lifting at work or at home, and the injured person might be able to make a claim on either health insurance or workers comp.

Comp insurers worried that the ACA was tightening health insurance cost controls better than comp insurers were allowed to. As the cost containment took hold, cases that straddled the border might drift into the workers comp world.

Health insurers, meanwhile, worried that they would take on claims of the previously uninsured, some of whom used to find a way to make that borderline case into a workers comp claim.

Research swung both ways. As the law has rolled out, the issue dissipated, at least among the mainstream media. If there was an impact, it appeared to be too small to measure.

Now the Workers Compensation Research Institute (WCRI), a Cambridge, MA, not-for-profit organization has looked at the ACA/comp issue again, specifically the potential effect of accountable care organizations on the workers comp system.

Accountable care organizations add to health care’s alphabet soup by being known as ACOs. They are groups of doctors, hospitals and other health care providers that combine to form networks that coordinate patient care. If they can save money while keeping quality high, they share in the savings. Kaiser Health News has a Q&A with details on how ACOs work.

The health care law offers incentives to create ACOs, but WCRI’s research indicates that “as ACOs become the norm, the number of workers compensation claims is very likely to increase,” said Richard A. Victor, WCRI executive director. The dreaded cost-shifting may be on its way.

Details of WCRI’s analysis will be released at the organization’s annual Issues and Research Conference March 5 and 6 in Boston. Other sessions at the conference will cover physician-dispensing of drugs, low fee schedules, a look at workers comp reform over the past two decades and look at challenges the line of business faces in the years ahead.

The I.I.I. has an Issues Update on workers compensation, one of the oldest casualty lines of business and one of the most complex.

I.I.I. chief actuary James Lynch digs into the data in an informative piece on loss trend factors:

Actuaries can be buggy about numbers, to say the least, and my article in this month’s Actuarial Review – a publication of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) - looks at a couple of sources of loss trends that can act as useful benchmarks.

One looks at workers compensation medical costs in 25 states. It is produced by the Workers Compensation Research Institute (WCRI), an organization I work closely with in my role as I.I.I. chief actuary.

The other looks at comp loss trends plus those of about a dozen other lines of business and has information going back to the 1930s, if you do a little digging. Older actuaries remember it as the Masterson Index, named after a Stevens Point, Wisconsin, actuary who created it and maintained it until relatively recently. Now Towers Watson actuaries have taken over the calculation.

As a sidebar, I also looked at the way the federal government measures auto inflation, including how it handles the introduction of predictive models and other overhauls to rating plans.

I.I.I. chief actuary James Lynch brings us a grim story on drug abuse and how it affects insurers:

This week Contingencies magazine published my article tracing how America’s latest drug epidemic has affected workers compensation insurance.

The epidemic comes from 20 years of gradually increasing use (and abuse) of opioids, a special class of prescription drugs that mimic many of the effects of heroin. Some you may have heard of, like Vicodin or OxyContin. Prescribed legally but highly addictive, they have become the most commonly abused class of drugs in America.

More people die from drug overdoses in America than from car accidents, and opioids lead the tragic parade. In 2010, for example, 16,652 people died from opioid overdoses, more than from heroin and cocaine combined. Opioids toll has tripled since the late 1990s.

My article shows how the growing epidemic played out in workers comp. Narcotics make up 25 percent of workers comp drug costs, and more than 45 percent of narcotics dollars pay for drugs containing oxycodone, according to the National Council on Compensation Insurance.

Insurers have acted as the crisis emerged, and now they as well as federal, state and local officials may be making headway against the problem.

Last week, after my article went to press, AIG’s new chief executive, Peter Hancock, noted his company had teamed with Johns Hopkins University to study opioid abuse among the company’s 23 million workers compensation claims.

“It is a terrible cost to the industry, a terrible cost to employers, and it’s a terrible cost to society,” Hancock told The Wall Street Journal. AIG has medical professionals working with doctors to find ways to alleviate pain without turning to opioids.

The most recent federal action reclassifies any drug containing the opioid hydrocodone as a Schedule II drug, meaning its prescriptions are more tightly controlled than before.

Unfortunately, these actions may be too late to prevent many opioid addicts from switching to heroin. Opioids tantalize the same brain receptors as heroin, and there are signs that addicts deprived of their Oxys switch.

Earthquake exposure is one of the biggest risks to workers compensation insurers, so it’s interesting to read that the California State Compensation Insurance Fund (SCIF) is once again looking to the capital markets to provide reinsurance protection for workers comp losses resulting from earthquakes.

This is a repeat of the first catastrophe bond sponsored by the SCIF in 2011 – Golden State Re Ltd sized at $200 million — which is due to expire in January 2015.

Artemis blog says:

The unique transaction, which has not been repeated by anyone else until now, links earthquake severity to workers compensation loss amounts demonstrating a new use of the catastrophe bond structure.”

The Golden State Re II catastrophe bond issuance is expected to be sized at $150 million or more, and will cover the SCIF until January 2019.

While the covered area is for earthquakes events across the United States, Artemis notes that as with the 2011 deal as much as 99.99 percent of the SCIF’s insurance portfolio is focused on California, so the risk is primarily focused on California-area earthquakes.

The new deal apparently carries a similar modeled loss trigger to the 2001 transaction, using the exposures of a notional portfolio of workers compensation risks in the SCIF portfolio, earthquake severity factors (ground motion), geographic distribution of the covered portfolio, types of buildings covered, time of day and the day of week an event occurs as some of the weighting factors.

An earthquake has to be magnitude 5.5 or greater to trigger the catastrophe bond, according to Artemis, and losses after an event will be modeled deterministically, so not related to actual injuries and fatalities, using the earthquake event parameters. This will be modeled against the notional portfolio using day/time weighting to determine an index value and notional modeled loss amount.

A 2007 report by EQECAT for the Workers’ Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of California (WCIRB) estimated California workers compensation insurers would pay annual losses of $180 million caused by earthquakes.

The report suggested that the losses would affect 15.6 million employees working during a major earthquake.

Check out I.I.I. facts and stats on workers compensation insurance.

Construction workers, farmers and landscape workers take note: insect-related deaths are most likely in your line of work.

As reported by The Wall Street Journal’s The Numbers blog, a new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) finds that insects, arachnids, and mites were involved in 83 fatal occupational injuries from 2003 to 2010.

During the course of the eight-year period, farmers and farm workers (20 fatalities), construction occupations (19 fatalities) and landscaping workers (17 fatalities) accounted for two-thirds of the deaths.

Bees were responsible for 52 workplace deaths – more than spiders, wasps and ants combined (25), The Numbers blog reports.

Most of the deaths (72 of the 83 total) were directly caused by an insect, including cases in which the worker was bitten or stung.

Another 11 deaths were indirectly caused by insects. These include cases where an insect distracted the worker while driving or caused the worker to fall from a height.

Anaphylactic shock, often associated with insect-related injuries, occurred in close to half the deaths, the BLS said.

By state, Texas saw the greatest number (21) of insect-related workplace deaths during the 8-year period, followed by Florida (8).

However, when it comes to non-fatal insect-related workplace injuries and illnesses with days away from work, four states: California, Florida, New York and Texas had more than 250 cases reported in all three years between 2008 and 2010.

As a percentage of all days-away-from-work cases in those large population states, though, insect-related cases were less than 1 percent of the total cases in any year.

Not surprisingly, these incidents tended to occur in the warmer months. Almost 94 percent of the cases occurred between April 1 and October 31. The largest number of deaths (17) occurred in September.

Check out National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) information on workplace safety and insects here.