The number of countries with downgraded political risk ratingsÃ‚ grewÃ‚ in the last year, as all five emerging market BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) saw their risk rating increase, according to AonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s 2014 Political Risk Map.
As a result, countries representing a large share of global output experienced a broad-based increase in political risk including political violence, government interference and sovereign non-payment risk, Aon said.
The 2014 map shows that 16 countries were downgraded in 2014 compared to 12 in 2013. Only six countries experienced upgrades (where the territory risk is rated lower than the previous year), compared to 13 in 2013.
Aon noted that BrazilÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s rating was downgraded becauseÃ‚ political risks have been increasing from moderate levels as economic weakness has increased the role of the government in the economy.
RussiaÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s rating was also downgraded due to recent developments with the Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea.
Political strains and focus on geopolitical issues have exacerbated an already weak operating environment for business and exchange transfer risks have increased following the risk of new capital controls. RussiaÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s economy continues to be dominated by the government, so economic policy deadlock has brought growth to a standstill and with it an increase in the risk of political violence.Ã¢â‚¬
India, China and South Africa also saw their ratings downgraded.
InÃ‚ another key takeawayÃ‚ Aon noted that Ukraine is now rated a very high risk country, as the implications of developments following the annexation of Crimea by Russia and government collapse warranted a further downgrade in political risk.
Exchange transfer risks, which are already very high will be further increased by restrictions in the financial system, Further, the willingness and ability of the country to settle its debts may be affected.Ã¢â‚¬
The map measures political risk in 163 countries and territories, in order to help companies assess and analyse their exposure to exchange transfer, legal and regulatory risk, political interference, political violence, sovereign non-payment and supply chain disruption.
Hat tip to Insurance Journal which reports on this story here.