Early Hurricane Forecasts

Early 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts are coming in and based on the latest information it appears we can continue to expect above average activity when the season gets underway June 1.

Here’s a glance at how they stack up.

Forecasters at the Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project are predicting 16 named storms, with 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes (Category 3-4-5). They are also calling for above average chance that a major hurricane will make U.S. and Caribbean landfall.

London-based consortium Tropical Storm Risk is calling for 14 named storms, with seven to eight hurricanes and three to four major hurricanes. TSR forecasts Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone activity at about 25 percent above the 1950-2010 norm.

Accuweather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists are also predicting an active season for 2011, with 15 named storms, eight of which are expected to become hurricanes, with three major hurricanes. They also expect more impact on the U.S. coastline than last year.

For insurers these early forecasts give a general idea of what’s to come, but of course, it’s still very early days.

As CSU says:

“Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April.†

Updated forecasts will be released around June 1, when hurricane season opens.

Check out I.I.I. hurricane facts and stats.

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