This Warren Buffett quote cited by Colorado State UniversityÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Tropical Meteorology Project opens their discussion of the features likely to affect next yearÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Atlantic hurricane season.
As the Palm Beach PostÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Eye On the Storm blog notes, for the first time in 29 years, the CSU team is limiting its December forecast to probabilities rather than estimating the number of tropical storms that will form, which will become hurricanes, and which of those will be major hurricanes.
The CSU team says:
Instead, the CSU team looked at two parameters: the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and the phase of El NiÃƒ ±o Ã¢â‚¬“ Southern Oscillation (ENSO):
We have been in an active era for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones since 1995, and we expect that typical conditions associated with a positive Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and strong thermohaline circulation (THC) to continue.Ã¢â‚¬
The CSU team expects the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be primarily determined by the strength of the THC/AMO and by the state of ENSO.
So what can we glean about next yearÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s hurricane activity from their discussion?
– A 45 percent chance that the THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El NiÃƒ ±o develops resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of 140, suggesting 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes.
– A 30 percent chance of a continuing above-average THC with the development of a significant El NiÃƒ ±o, resulting in NTC activity of 75, with 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes.
– A 15 percent chance that THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2012 and no El NiÃƒ ±o develops resulting in NTC activity of 180, with 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes.
– A 10 percent chance of a weaker THC and a significant El NiÃƒ ±o resulting in NTC activity of 40, with 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricanes.
Come back April 4 for the CSU teamÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s update of its 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast.
In the mean time check outÃ‚ Ã‚ I.I.I. facts and statistics on hurricanes.