The first of the April forecasts for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is in, with the London-based consortium Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) estimating that there is a 63 percent chance that hurricane activity will be in the top one-third of years historically. The forecast points to an above-average season in 2008, with a 62 percent above-average probability of a storm striking the U.S. Four tropical storms are forecast to strike the U.S., of which two are expected to be hurricanes. TSRÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s forecast does come with a warning: Ã¢â‚¬Å“Users should be aware that the skill of TSRÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s April forecasts for Atlantic hurricane activity over the last 20 years, while positive, is fairly low.Ã¢â‚¬ Look for our coverage of Colorado State UniversityÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s hurricane forecast tomorrow. Check out further I.I.I. hurricane facts & stats.Ã‚
As the 2008 hurricane season approaches, weÃ¢â‚¬â„¢re seeing the launch of a number of Web-based initiatives designed to enhance flood monitoring and assessment for forecasters, emergency managers, scientists and the general public. For example, a new online map that tracks flood conditions has been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The new system incorporates real-time water data collected by USGS crews out in the field and is part of the USGS WaterWatch suite of Web-based streamflow products. It can be accessed at the map of flood and high flow conditions Web site. In another development, just a couple of weeks ago, the National Hurricane Center said that it is working with Google to develop a tool that will allow residents in hurricane danger zones to enter their location and see their exposure to storm surge resulting from various hurricanes. We expect to hear more on these initiatives as the hurricane season gets underway. PresumablyÃ‚ these toolsÃ‚ may help people make a better-informed decisionÃ‚ about whether to purchase flood insurance. Check out further I.I.I. info on flood risk.
For those of you who read us regularly, you may remember last August we outlined a detailed rebuttal from I.I.I. president Dr. Robert Hartwig to the September 2007 Bloomberg Markets cover story Ã¢â‚¬Å“The Insurance HoaxÃ¢â‚¬ that had claimed insurers use secret tactics to avoid paying claims (see our August 30, 2007, posting). Since then, weÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ve noted many times that the articleÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s premise and facts were unsound and that the insurance industry has an excellent claims-paying track record. The I.I.I. is therefore dismayed to learn that the same Bloomberg Markets article has been named a finalist for the Deadline Club Daniel Pearl Award for Investigative Reporting sponsored by the New York City chapter of The Society for Professional Journalists. It seems unfitting for an article replete with so many factual and arithmetic errors to be up for an award named after a courageous journalist. The I.I.I. has written a letter to the Deadline Club expressing its concerns. Fellow insurance blogger Sam Friedman of National Underwriter takes a similar view.Ã‚
Of all businesses that close down following a disaster, more than 25 percent never open their doors again. Having adequate insurance and a disaster planÃ‚ is therefore key. For businessowners trying to decide what kinds of insurance they need for their business, the I.I.I. has just published the print version of Insuring Your Business: A Small BusinessownersÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ Guide to Insurance. Whether itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s property insurance, liability protection, life insurance for key employees or workers compensation, the book has a wealth of information for small businessowners. There are also chapters focused on insurance for specific types of business such as construction contractors, food service businesses, home-based businesses, nonprofit organizations and small retail stores. To purchase a copy of Insuring Your Business check out the I.I.I. online bookstore.Ã‚
With just two months to go until the start of the 2008 hurricane season, insurers are being warned to make preparations. EMB, a global actuarial consulting firm, has issued a reminder that hurricanes pose the greatest Ã¢â‚¬Ëœact of natureÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ risk to the U.S. insurance industry for 2008. Despite the relative calm of the past two years, EMB cautions insurers not to be lulled into a false sense of security. While 2006 and 2007 saw a drop in land-falling hurricanes, it notes that both years experienced higher-than-average hurricane activity in the North Atlantic. Further, even though hurricanes top the list of property/casualty insurance risk, EMB says that other Ã¢â‚¬Ëœacts of nature,Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ including tornadoes, earthquakes, winter storms, fire and hail must also be accounted for when insurers assess pricing strategies. Check out the I.I.I.Ã¢â‚¬â„¢s U.S. catastrophe facts for more information. For hurricane preparedness tips check out the I.I.I. disaster information site.Ã‚
Despite a rise in the number of securities class action cases settled last year, the total value of those settlements plummeted 60 percent from the all-time high of $17.2 billion reported in 2006, to $7 billion in 2007. ThatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s the latest analysis from Cornerstone Research in its 2007 Securities Class Action Settlements Report. More than 70 percent of this drop was due to the largest settlement in history, the $7.2 billion Enron settlement, the majority of which was approved in 2006. Cited in the Cornerstone press release, Stanford Law School professor Joseph Grundfest, director of the Securities Class Action Clearinghouse (sponsored in cooperation with Cornerstone Research), says: Ã¢â‚¬Å“It seems clear that the aggregate dollar value of settlements over the next two or three years is likely to decline significantly because the inventory of large cases in the pipeline just isnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t there. The interesting open question is whether the subprime crisis will cause an uptick in securities fraud settlement activity that might, given settlement cycles in the litigation industry, only become apparent three to five years from now.Ã¢â‚¬ Further commentary on the Cornerstone Research study can be found at The D&O Diary, a blog focused on D&O liability issues.
Industry eyes today will be on the news out of the Treasury department, where U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is expected to outline the agencyÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s blueprint for federal regulation of financial services, including insurance. Word on the street is that the TreasuryÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s plan would endorse optional federal charters (OFC) for both insurers and producers. It would also propose the creation of an interim federal insurance regulator. Check out National UnderwriterÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s March 31 online article by Arthur Postal and Daniel Hays for more information on the proposal. Check out the I.I.I.Ã¢â‚¬â„¢s online update on the OFC.
Is the title of a two-hour PBS documentary on the financial challenges and options facing AmericaÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s baby boomers that will debut nationally next Monday (March 31). Dr. Steven Weisbart, I.I.I.Ã¢â‚¬â„¢s chief economist, will appear in the program that will be aired in separate, one-hour installments. The first episode, Ã¢â‚¬ËœHazards and Vicissitudes,Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ offers a look at the origins of retirement in the U.S. and the creation of Social Security and Medicare. In the second segment, Ã¢â‚¬ËœOn Our Own,Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ the focus shifts to how Americans are more personally involved today than previous generations in planning for their own retirement. The second segment, featuring Dr. Weisbart, airs on Monday, April 7. Check out further I.I.I. info on life insurance, annuities and long-term care insurance.Ã‚
ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s becoming a recurring theme. Climate change has again been identified as a major threat by global businesses, according to a new survey on emerging risks conducted by Business Continuity Expo 2008 and sponsored by Marsh. Its findings reveal that some 87 percent of businesses see climate change as the single biggest threat in terms of risk assessment and the effect it could have on their businesses future growth. Perhaps of more concern, many are at a loss as to what can be done in order to prepare or plan for this eventuality. To embellish the point, the threat posed by climate change to the continuity and long-term success of their business is ahead of terrorism, pandemic flu, flooding, the credit crunch, government red-tape and outsourcing and offshoring. The survey was conducted among 150 major U.K. and European companies.
Another identifiable impact of climate change on the Antarctic environment has been captured in satellite and video images by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). The footage shows images of a huge chunk of ice breaking away from the Wilkins Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula. The BAS press release indicates the scientistsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ surprise at the speed with which this has happened. Ã¢â‚¬Å“The ice shelf is hanging by a thread Ã¢â‚¬“ weÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ll know in the next few days or weeks what its fate will be,Ã¢â‚¬ said Professor David Vaughan of the BAS. Professor Vaughan predicted in 1993 that the northern part of the Wilkins Ice Shelf was likely to be lost within 30 years if climate warming on the Peninsula were to continue at the same rate. According to the BAS, the Antarctica region has experienced unprecedented warming over the last half century. Several ice shelves have retreated in the past 30 years, six of them collapsing completely (Prince Gustav Channel, Larsen Inlet, Larsen A, Larsen B, Wordie, Muller and the Jones Ice Shelf).