Latest Atlantic hurricane season forecasts are focused on the numbers – how many storms can we expect? and how many of those will be major hurricanes? NOAA, Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk cast their predictions here, here and here.
But as the latest storm surge analysis from CoreLogic indicates, it is where a hurricane hits land that is often a more important factor than the number of storms that may occur during the year.
More than 6.8 million homes located along both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States are at risk of hurricane-driven storm surge, with a total reconstruction cost value (RCV) of just over $1.5 trillion, according to CoreLogic.
But the disproportionate numbers of at-risk homes in just 15 major metropolitan areas means that where the storm makes landfall can make all the difference in terms of property damage and loss of life.
CoreLogic’s analysis reveals that some 67 percent of the 6.8 million total at-risk homes and 68 percent of the total $1.5 trillion RCV is located within 15 major metropolitan areas.
That’s 4.6 million homes, with total RCV of just over $1 trillion located in urban centers along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts including Miami, New York City, New Orleans, Houston, Philadelphia, Charleston and Boston.
The Miami metro area, which includes Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, tops the list with 780,482 at-risk homes and an RCV of $143.9 billion.
By comparison, the New York City metro area has slightly fewer homes with potential storm surge risk at 719,373, but a significantly higher RCV totaling $260.2 billion.
As CoreLogic says:
“History has shown us that a single low-level storm can cause substantial property loss and potential loss of life it it occurs in or near an area of dense development.”
It’s important to note that properties located outside of designated FEMA flood zones may still be at risk for storm surge inundation.
However, only homes located within FEMA-designated high risk flood areas are required to carry flood insurance through the National Flood Insurance Program.
A 2015 poll by the Insurance Information Institute found that 14 percent of American homeowners had a flood insurance policy. This percentage has been at about the same level every year since 2009.