Tag Archives: Earl

Earl and Coastal Exposure

Five of the top 10 states in terms of the value of  insured coastal property vulnerable to hurricanes are situated in the northeast. Something to bear in mind as Hurricane Earl tracks up the east coast.

New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Maine are situated parallel to Earl’s path and have some of the highest insured coastal property values in the country, according to the I.I.I.

Figures compiled by catastrophe modeler AIR Worldwide show the total value of insured coastal exposure in these five states was $4.4 trillion in 2007. That’s about half the $8.9 trillion value of insured coastal property in hurricane prone states as a whole.

The data from AIR Worldwide also shows significant increases in  insured coastal property values in all five states. Consider the following:

New York: the total value of insured coastal exposure increased by 25.1 percent, from $1.9 trillion in 2004 to $2.3 trillion in 2007.

Massachusetts: the total value of insured coastal exposure increased by 16.7 percent, from $662.4 billion in 2004 to $772.8 billion in 2007.

New Jersey: the total value of insured coastal exposure increased by 26.5 percent, from $505.8 billion in 2004 to $635.5 billion in 2007.

Connecticut: the total value of insured coastal exposure increased by 18.5 percent, from $404.9 billion in 2004 to $479.9 billion in 2007.

Maine: the total value of insured coastal exposure increased by 29.7 percent, from $117.2 billion in 2004 to $146.9 billion in 2007.

And AIR Worldwide expects the total insured value of property in hurricane prone states to double every 10 years.

Check out I.I.I. hurricane fact files and market share by state.

Hurricane Earl: Prepare Now

An important thing to remember about hurricanes is that you don’t have to be in the eye of the storm to feel its impact.

Hurricane Earl is a case in point. While current forecasts indicate that Earl’s center will stay out to sea, storm-related winds, storm surge, rainfall and surf are some of the hazards that U.S. East coast residents will face on land.

That’s why it’s important for those living in areas covered by the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) hurricane watch (currently in effect north of Surf City, North Carolina to Parramore Island, Virginia) to make their storm preparations now.

According to the latest NHC forecast, Earl is currently a Category 3 hurricane (with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph).

However, hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from Earl’s center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles, the NHC says.

In fact its wind probability product shows the probability of tropical-storm force winds (winds equal to or exceeding 39mph) in various East coast locations this weekend.

For example, Cape Hatteras, NC, and Nantucket, MA have a greater than 50 percent chance of tropical-storm force winds and New York City and Atlantic City, NJ, a greater than 20 percent chance.

Check out I.I.I. information on disaster preparedness  and hurricane fact files and market share by state.

Check out the NHC graphic below of Earl’s tropical storm force wind speed probabilities:

0901EarlTSForceWinds

Earl Becomes Major Hurricane

Hurricane Earl – a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale (sustained winds 111-130mph) – is currently bringing heavy rain and high winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands in the Caribbean as it makes its way toward the west-northwest near 15 miles per hour.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the center of Earl is expected to pass near or over the northernmost Virgin Islands this afternoon and this evening.

A hurricane warning is currently in effect for Anguilla, St. Martin and St. Barts, St. Maarten, Saba and St Eustatius, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and the Puerto Rican islands of Culebra and Vieques.

Jeff Masters’ Wunderblog reports that once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina:

“History suggests that a storm in Earl’s current location has a 25 percent chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl’s chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that.

None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina’s Outer Banks and to Massachusetts.†

Here’s the latest forecast track from the NHC:

0830HurrEarl

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

Check out I.I.I. hurricane fact files and market share by state.