Aviation Terror Threat

Since we blogged a few days ago about terrorism insurance take-up rising in the U.S. two further reports have been published confirming the trend of improving availability and affordability of coverage under the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA). First, a RAND Corp study finds that TRIA effects are most positive for a conventional attack, with expected costs to taxpayers in this scenario lower with TRIA than without. Then a study from Guy Carpenter points to an emerging global aviation market issue – whether losses to aircraft hulls, passengers and third parties arising from weapons of mass destruction (WMD) should be government risks or commercial market risks. As airlines are required to have passenger and third-party liability insurance cover to receive landing rights, the cancellation of coverage could threaten to bring about a complete shutdown of the aviation industry. While the U.S. government currently provides U.S. air carriers with passenger and crew liability, hull war risk and third-party liability cover, the report notes that since 2002 most other government schemes have been withdrawn and replaced by commercial cover. I.I.I. has further aviation information available online.  Ã‚  

Hurricane Hearings

A busy day on Capitol Hill tomorrow as a joint public hearing titled “National Flood Insurance Program: Issues Exposed by the 2005 Hurricanes† will be held before the Financial Services and Homeland Security Oversight Subcommittees. The hearing is expected to explore public and private sector insurance practices in the wake of the 2005 hurricanes. Specifically, the interaction between the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and private insurers and the allocation of wind vs. water insurance claims will be examined. Later in the day, a hearing before the U.S. Senate Judiciary committee will focus on “Rising violent crime in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina†. Check out I.I.I.’s flood insurance stats and hurricane insurance facts.

Terrorism Take-Up Rises

As debate continues on the renewal of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) beyond 2007, latest industry stats again support the program’s success. A new report from Marsh shows that U.S. businesses are buying more terrorism insurance than ever, in spite of the increasing cost of coverage. Take-up rates for the coverage have climbed steadily, from 27 percent of U.S. businesses in 2003, to 59 percent at the end of 2006. Almost two-thirds of large U.S. firms and 60 percent of mid-sized firms bought the coverage in 2006, up slightly from 2005. The median terrorism insurance rate was $47 per million of total insured value in 2006, a 9 percent increase on 2005. Financial institutions were the biggest buyers of terrorism insurance (81 percent), followed by real estate and utility firms (77 percent) and educational institutions and health care (76 percent). In terms of region, the Northeast still had the highest take up rate for coverage (66 percent), followed closely by the Midwest (63 percent). Check out further I.I.I. terrorism risk information online.

Clarifying Cat Models

With Florida and Louisiana regulators declining to certify the use of five-year models in the underwriting process, catastrophe modelers must be feeling a little like Albert Einstein who once observed of the disconnect between science and the world beyond the lab: “Science is a wonderful thing if one does not have to earn one’s living by it.† Of course catastrophe models have come under a lot of scrutiny since the record hurricane loss seasons of 2004 and 2005, and it’s important to recognize that they are just one of the many tools that help insurers, reinsurers and risk managers more accurately analyze, write and price for catastrophe risk. The output from a given catastrophe model is also only as good as the data embedded in it and subject to the different variables of an individual insurer’s book of business. That said, today’s models are increasingly sophisticated and constantly being fine-tuned to incorporate the latest technologies and data. Models have also been developed for a wide range of catastrophic risks beyond hurricanes, including earthquakes, tornadoes, floods and terrorism. The use of computer technology in the underwriting process is not new, and in the case of catastrophe models there’s no doubt that with this tool, underwriters are better placed to more accurately analyze and evaluate catastrophe risk going forward. But given recent concerns, clearly there is more to be done in better explaining how the models actually work.  Check out  I.I.I.’s catastrophe modeling update.

Season Opening

So, the 2007 hurricane season is upon us. And on the eve of the official start, Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project released its latest forecast. Similar to its earlier prediction, the call is still for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 of which will be intense (Category 3-4-5). The probability of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline is at 74 percent, while there is a 50 percent probability of a major hurricane hitting the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, and a 49 percent chance of the same for the Gulf Coast. All these figures are well above the long-term averages. As the season progresses, check out I.I.I.’s catastrophe update and flood insurance facts for further information. The vital role played by the industry in defraying the cost of catastrophes is also detailed in the Institute’s online publication “A Firm Foundation†.  The I.I.I.’s disaster information Web site is another useful resource.