Coastal Flooding Exposure

Hot on the heels of yesterday’s posting about modeling and as the UN Climate Change Conference continues in Bali, the release of a global study on coastal flooding by the OECD, RMS and the University of Southampton is timely. The study makes a first estimate of the exposure of the world’s largest port cities to coastal flooding due to storm surge and damage due to high winds. It also investigates how climate change is likely to impact each port city’s exposure to coastal flooding by the 2070s, alongside subsidence and population growth and urbanization. The upshot is that the total population  reliant on flood defenses  could more than triple from 40 million today to around 150 million people by 2070. In the same period, total assets exposed will grow even more dramatically, more than 10 times current levels reaching $35,000 billion. The findings are ominous for a number of U.S. cities, with Miami topping the list in terms of assets exposed to coastal flooding ($416.3 billion today and increasing to $3,513 billion by the 2070s). New York-Newark places third with exposed assets of $320.2 billion, rising to $2,147 billion by the 2070s. New Orleans ranks 12th, with $233.7 billion in exposed assets, rising to $1,013 billion by the 2070s, while Virginia Beach ranks 19th, with $84.6 billion in current exposed assets, increasing to $581.7 billion by the 2070s. How to put in place effective climate change policies and disaster management strategies are just some of the challenges the study highlights. Check out I.I.I. facts & stats on flood insurance.

Tsunami Factor

Look back at a list of major earthquakes through the years and you’ll see a number of related tsunami events. Perhaps the most memorable in recent history was the December 26, 2004, magnitude 9.0 earthquake in the Indian Ocean, that triggered a series of tsunami (tidal waves) and left some 220,000 people dead. In an I.I.I.  chart of the 10 deadliest world catastrophes between 1970 and 2006, that event ranks third. So yesterday’s announcement by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that it has completed high-resolution digital elevation models to prepare three east coast communities for tsunami and storm-driven flood threats is a welcome step. The latest models for Long Island, Atlantic City and Daytona Beach provide the framework to accurately forecast the magnitude and extent of coastal flooding during a tsunami or storm surge event. They add to models already in place for some 20 U.S. coastal communities and NOAA expects to build 50 more models in the coming years. Check out further I.I.I. info on flood insurance.  

UN Climate Change Talks and Initiative

The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali got underway today. The two-week long conference brings together representatives from more than 180 countries and observers from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations as well as the media. A key goal of the conference is to work towards a deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012. Ahead of the Bali meeting, insurers AIG, Allianz, AXA, and Swiss Re were among 150 companies to have signed the Bali Communique on Climate Change, a call to world leaders for a comprehensive, legally binding United Nations framework to tackle climate change. This initiative has been led by the Prince of Wales’s Corporate Leaders Group on Climate Change and the University of Cambridge.