Growth in U.S. liability claims could accelerate to 5-6 percent in the near future, according to a just-released report by Swiss Re sigma.
The slowdown in U.S. liability claims paid after 2008, primarily due to economic drivers such as the recession and weak recovery, is expected to reverse.
Why the change?
Cyber risk and the liability from emerging technologies including hydrofracking and autonomous cars, combined with stronger economic growth will drive liability claims costs higher, sigma says.
Interestingly the report suggests that the effects of tort reform, which contributed to a slowdown in claims growth in the mid-2000s in the U.S., were a one-off benefit and will no longer suppress claims growth to the same degree.
Often these types of reform have only a temporary effect on claims growth, which fades as the rules eventually soften again or the legal profession learns how to optimize the pursuit of claims in the new framework.”
Tort reform in the U.S. has focused on medical malpractice and class action claims, the report says.
Many early studies concluded that medical malpractice reforms such as limits on lawyers’ fees and non-economic compensation were effective in reducing medical malpractice liability. However, some of these caps were later overturned by state supreme courts.
Despite passage of the Class Action Fairness Act in 2005, empirical evidence on the effects of federal class action reform in the U.S. remains inconclusive, sigma adds.
The report also warns that litigation funding, in which a third-party funding company pays the costs of litigation and is paid only if the litigation is successful, is still in its infancy in the U.S. but developing.
Check out this I.I.I. backgrounder on the U.S. liability system here.