Category Archives: Hurricanes

2020 Hurricane Season Projected to Be “Above Normal”

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season activity is projected to be “above normal,” according to Triple-I non-resident scholar Dr. Phil Klotzbach.

Dr. Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University (CSU), and his team have issued an early forecast of 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes for the year, with above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

A typical year has 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are defined as Category 3, 4, and 5 storms, where wind speeds reach at least 111 miles per hour.

The forecast is based partly on the fact that El Niño conditions are unlikely this summer and fall.

“El Niño is warmer-than-normal water in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific,” Dr. Klotzbach said. “When it occurs, it tends to increase upper-level westerly winds that tear apart hurricanes when the try to develop.”

The chart below shows 2020 hurricane probabilities for 18 coastal states.

A lot can change between now and the peak of the season though, so an updated forecast will be issued on June 4.

As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

For the full forecast report click here: 
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2020/04/2020-04.pdf

For information on hurricane-proofing your home and business, check out the following:

Flood Policy Renewal Period Extended

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced it is extending the grace period to renew flood insurance policies from 30 days to 120 days to help policyholders who may be experiencing financial difficulties due to the coronavirus pandemic. The extension applies to National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies with an expiration date between February 13 and June 15, 2020.

Said David Maurstad, the FEMA administrator who oversees the NFIP, “We want to make sure that policyholders don’t have to worry that their policy will lapse during the spring flood season or into the start of hurricane season.”

A Better Tool to Predict Impact of Hurricanes? 


Minimum sea level pressure can predict the scope of a storm’s  damage — including from storm surge, not just wind — and be more accurately measured in real time.

The more accurately experts can predict an impending storm’s impact, the better prepared individuals, communities, and businesses can be to soften the blow and bounce back. A recent paper published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society suggests an underutilized tool may be better at predicting hurricane damage than the traditionally used “maximum sustained wind speed.”

Atlantic hurricanes have a long history of financial impact. During 2017-18, hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence, and Michael combined to cause more than $345 billion (U.S.) in direct economic damage.  The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale categorizes only the hurricane wind threat – not the totality of impacts, including storm surge and rainfall.

According to the paper,  several scales have been proposed to replace Saffir-Simpson, but most aren’t easily calculated in real time, nor can they be reliably calculated historically. For example, “storm wind radius” datasets extend back only about 30 years. 

Minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), the paper finds, is a better predictor of the scope of a storm’s  damage and can be more accurately measured in real time, “making it an ideal quantity for evaluating a hurricane’s potential damage.”

MSLP is the lowest pressure recorded in a hurricane.  It occurs at the center of the storm and is part of the large-scale structure of a hurricane’s vortex. Because winds are generated by differences in  barometric pressure between the hurricane’s eye and its perimeter, lower pressure is typically associated with stronger winds.  Also, if two hurricanes have the same wind speed, the one with the lower pressure typically will cover a greater area, potentially posing greater storm surge risk.

“With aircraft reconnaissance, MSLP can be reliably calculated,” the paper says. It’s also much easier to measure at landfall than is maximum sustained wind speed.

“Barometers are among the simplest meteorological instruments and will usually operate in a wide range of conditions,” the report says. Anemometers, which measure wind speed, “are prone to mechanical failure…precisely when they matter most.”

The paper was authored by Colorado State University atmospheric scientist Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach — a Triple-I non-resident scholar — along with scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), North Carolina State University, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, and insurance broker Aon.


2019 Hurricane Season: “Slightly Above Average”

Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science released a summary of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season today.

Seven of the named storms lasted 24 hours or less – the most on record with such short longevity.

The 2019 season yielded 18 named storms, six of which became hurricanes, including three major ones (Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph). While 18 is quite a bit more than the seasonal average of 12 , seven of the named storms lasted 24 hours or less – the most on record with such short longevity.

“The season ended up slightly above average when looking at integrated metrics, such as accumulated cyclone energy, that account for frequency, intensity and duration of storms,” said Dr. Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science, non-resident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.), and lead author of the report. “We generally forecast a near-average season, so we slightly under-predicted overall levels of Atlantic hurricane activity.”

Dorian: most destructive

Of the three major hurricanes, Dorian was the most destructive. Forming in late August, it devastated the northwestern Bahamas at Category 5 intensity, causing over 60 fatalities and economic losses that could be as much as $7 billion, according to a recent Artemis report. It then made landfall near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, as a Category 1 hurricane and later caused significant damage in the Atlantic Provinces of Canada. Insurance broker Aon estimates the economic value of the damage Dorian inflicted on the United States at approximately $1.2 billion.

Hurricane Humberto, forming in September, caused much less damage than Dorian, as it remained hundreds of miles offshore. Nevertheless, it caused large swells across the U.S. East Coast and resulted in one fatality when a man drowned due to a rip current in North Carolina. Another man was reported missing in St. Augustine, Florida after the storm. Bermuda officials reported that no fatalities occurred on the island during Humberto’s passage.

Hurricane Lorenzo became a Category 5 hurricane in the central subtropical Atlantic – the farthest east Cat 5 Atlantic formation on record. It generated 49-foot waves, with an occasional rogue wave nearing 100 feet, sending swells to both sides of the Atlantic. Lorenzo caused 10 fatalities.

She nearly didn’t get a name

The most destructive storm to hit the continental United States in the 2019 season almost didn’t have a name. Two hours before dumping 40 inches of rain in some parts of Texas, Tropical Storm Imelda was just “a tropical depression,” Dr. Klotzbach said. Imelda was upgraded to a named storm 90 minutes before landfall, but it proceeded to deluge southeast Texas, causing at least $2 billion in economic damage and at least five deaths, according to Aon.

“From a wind perspective, Imelda was practically a non-event,” Dr. Klotzbach continued. “But the rain it brought made it the most expensive tropical cyclone to hit the United States during the 2019 season.”

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and ends officially on November 30. Colorado State’s full summary and verification report is available here.

 

Hurricane Michael insured losses reach $7.4 billion

Insured losses associated with 2018’s Hurricane Michael reached almost $7.44 billion, according to a recent Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (FOIR) update. The losses consist of residential and commercial property, private flood and business interruption insurance, and miscellaneous coverages. There were 149,773 claims made, and 89 percent of them were closed.

Hurricane Michael became a Category 5 storm on October 10, 2018, and made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, in the Florida Panhandle. It was the strongest hurricane to ever hit the Florida Panhandle and the second known Category 5 landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It was the first Category 5 storm to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

An Artemis analysis of the FOIR report says that based on the run-rate of costs per claim (around $65,890 per claim), another $1 billion could be added to the total before every claim is closed down and that many of the claims remaining open will be among the more costly. Fewer than 69 percent of commercial property claims are closed, compared to almost 89 percent of residential. Business interruption claims are also slow to close and therefore are likely to increase the total.

 

Managing your insurance claim after disaster

Lynne McChristian

By Lynne McChristian, I.I.I. Media Spokesperson and Non-resident Scholar 

If Hurricane Dorian left its imprint on your home or business, you’ve likely already started the claims process with a call to your insurer. Knowing what happens next will be helpful as the recovery begins.

The insurance claims process is indeed a process. There are steps involved and requirements from both the policyholder and the insurance company. Most people have never had to file an insurance claim of any sort. And if they had, it might have been an automobile accident claim, which can be far less complex that one that involves damage to something as large and costly as a home and whatever is inside it.

After a widespread natural disaster, insurers take a triage approach to claims handling, and that means those people who suffered the most damaging losses are seen first. Obviously, everyone with damage wants to be seen promptly, yet taking care of people in order of damage is what serves those most in need.

After you report a claim, someone will be sent out to appraise the damage. You might have more than one insurance claims professional visit, as there is separate expertise involved – depending on the damage you reported. You might have someone look at the structure, an additional claims adjuster for the contents damage, and then a flood damage claims expert visit your property, if you have flood insurance protection. Some of these insurance professionals may work directly for your insurer, while others are hired as independent contractors to give your claim faster attention. Tip: Get a business card and cellphone number for every person who appraises the damage, so you can follow up.

If your home is so badly damaged that you cannot live in it, you may get a check on the spot from your claims adjuster. This is not a settlement check. It is coverage that is part of a standard homeowners policy, called Additional Living Expense. It covers the extra expenses you’ll have if you must live elsewhere while your home is repaired or rebuilt.

Above all else, keep organized and retain all your receipts. Temporary repairs you made to prevent further damage are covered under your policy. You will want to keep the process rolling to return to normal – and insurers want that, too.

 

Nearly 80 percent of homeowners in coastal Carolinas uninsured for flood

As Hurricane Dorian churns northward off the coast of South Carolina as a Category 2 storm, the National Hurricane Center continues to forecast dangerous storm surge conditions through the Carolinas, up the coast into Virginia, as of 11 a.m. September 5.

I.I.I. infographic based on Aon estimates of NFIP data

Using National Flood Insurance Program policy takeup rates as estimated by Aon, the six coastal counties in South Carolina average a 28 percent flood insurance takeup rate, compared to a 16 percent takeup rate for the 21 coastal counties in North Carolina. Dare County in North Carolina had the highest takeup rate of both states, with 61 percent, and Hertford County had the lowest in the two states, at 1.0 percent. Overall South Carolina has 204,372 total policies in force, with 2,284,722 housing units statewide. North Carolina has 132,983 policies in force for 4,622,575 housing units statewide.

The graphic below shows the probability of storm-induced flooding for the Carolina coast as of September 5 at 2 p.m. eastern.
For up-to-date flood probability click here.

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal

More flood insurance facts and statistics from the I.I.I. are available here.

Hurricane Dorian Update: September 4, 2019

As of early afternoon on September 4 Hurricane Dorian was approximately 100 miles off the east coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center reported that Hurricane Dorian would likely move slowly up the Florida coast to Georgia and the Carolinas. While the storm’s intensity has declined since it struck the Bahamas as a Category 5 hurricane, Dorian is now classified as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 mph.

Federal emergency declarations are in effect for Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, and the governor of Virginia also declared a state of emergency. Dorian is expected to maintain its current intensity for the next few days, and forecasters said that those in Northeast Florida to the Carolinas should be on alert for the possibility of destructive winds and flooding from heavy rains or storm surges.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University and Insurance Information Institute non-resident scholar, is providing regular updates on Dorian via Twitter. He said that the storm has now generated the ninth-most accumulated cyclone energy by an Atlantic hurricane named during August in the satellite era (since 1966).

In a Fox Business interview, Michael Barry, senior vice president and head of media relations and public affairs at the Insurance Information Institute, said,“The industry is very well capitalized and has the financial wherewithal to pay whatever claims comes its way. Of course, right now, we’re looking at the priority of making sure everybody’s customers are safe and sound.”

An Artemis blog post said that even if Dorian remains just offshore, some sources expect a low-single digit billions market loss from the hurricane, just from wind and surge damage along its track. That figure would rise with every mile closer to shore the eye of Hurricane Dorian comes.. Any wobble west onto shore or a full landfall could raise the potential insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market impact significantly.

Recovery from Dorian in the Bahamas and other islands of the Caribbean that were impacted is expected to be slow because most of the damage caused by the storm is not covered by insurance. In a Wall Street Journal article, Steve Bowen, a meteorologist and head of catastrophe insights at Aon plc, said that commercial businesses have the highest levels of insurance penetration in the Bahamas, while many individuals lack coverage.

Jonny Urwin, an analyst with UBS Group AG, said it estimates that insured damage in the Bahamas could be between $500 million and $1 billion. For the storm overall, UBS projects that the total insured losses from Dorian could be between $5 billion and $10 billion, basing its estimate on a comparison with Hurricane Matthew, which followed a similar path in 2016.

 

The evacuation dilemma: stay or go?

As of Saturday evening, Hurricane Dorian is making a big right hand turn, moving the storm’s threat north.
So now it seems Georgians and South Carolinians are facing the evacuation dilemma: stay or go?
I’ve been there. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew was heading arrow straight for the border between Broward and Miami-Dade counties. We lived a mile north of that.
We boarded the house up as best we could, moved our valuable stuff (a lamppost, a stereo, a rocker we bought on our honeymoon) into the downstairs bathroom, where it would be best protected. And we sat on our couch and cried. We knew what we owned was junk, but it was our junk. It was everything we had, and we knew we would never see it again.
Then we left.
Too many people take the chance and stay behind. Travelers Insurance surveyed people living in hurricane-prone states. The survey found:

  • Men (23%) were more likely than women (11%) to ignore a mandatory evacuation order.
  • Millennials (21%) were more likely to ignore an order than Gen Xers (16%) or Baby Boomers (11%).
  • People in the most cane-prone states (Florida, Louisiana, Texas’ Gulf Coast) were the stubbornest. Georgians, Alabamians, Mississippians, Virginians and North Carolinians were most likely to heed the order.

Back in 1992, my wife and I were lucky. Hurricane Andrew drifted south, and we returned to a home intact.

Even so, we made the right decision, and I’d urge anyone in the same position now to leave. After all, insurance can help you recover the stuff you’ve lost. But no one can replace you.

I.I.I. has some tips for what to do when a hurricane threatens.

Hurricane Dorian headed toward Florida as a Category 4 storm

As of August 28, Hurricane Dorian has been forecast to be a Category 4 hurricane and chances have increased for a direct hit over Labor Day weekend along the coast of Central Florida, causing storm preparations to get off to a frenzied start.

The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) forecast track map showed Dorian making a direct landfall over Volusia and Brevard Counties on September 2 with winds of more than 110 mph, storm surge, high tides and torrential rainfall.

Dorian became a tropical storm on August 24 and strengthened to hurricane status on August 28 near St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands. Nearly the entire eastern coastline of Florida and the Georgia coastal area are within the potential path of the storm. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a statewide state of emergency.

According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University and Insurance Information Institute non-resident scholar, Hurricane Dorian has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than the other four named storms of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season combined. Andrea, Chantal and Erin were very weak, and while Barry became a hurricane, it was relatively short-lived.

Dr. Klotzbach has been tracking Dorian and provided a video update yesterday on its progress.

The I.I.I. offers the following guidance to those who live and work along the east coast of Florida and Georgia:

  • Write down the name and phone number of your insurer and insurance professional and keep this information either in your wallet or purse;
  • Purchase emergency supplies, such as batteries and flashlights;
  • Secure drinking water and non-perishable food; both are essential for all household members in case of prolonged power outages. It is recommended you have one gallon of drinking water per person per day, for up to seven days;
  • Prepare your yard by removing all outdoor furniture, lawn items, planters and other materials that could be picked up by high winds;
  • Fill your car’s gasoline tank because long gas lines and fuel shortages often follow a major weather event;
  • Review your evacuation plan and if you have a pet, your pet’s evacuation plan;
  • Conduct a home inventory; there are many mobile app options which can help you create and store a room-by-room record of your belongings.

 

I.I.I. satellite media tour: Peak hurricane season is upon us

 

By Lynne McChristian, I.I.I. Media Spokesperson and Non-resident Scholar 

 

 

The Insurance Information Institute, along with Colorado State University’s atmospheric research scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach, will be conducting a satellite media tour on Tuesday, August 13 in Miami to talk about what may lie ahead for the remainder of the hurricane season. Nearly 20 media outlets have signed up to participate. We will be talking with news organizations throughout the U.S. about the rising frequency and severity of natural disasters and about what you can do to understand your risks and be ready to face them – both physically and financially.

Hurricane Season ebbs and flows. And, our collective attention spans mostly ebb. Granted, it’s hard to remain engaged with an event that lasts half a year. From June 1 to November 30, you hear the “Get Ready” message from multiple sources, and the human tendency to wait until a storm threat is on the doorstep makes preparedness more frenetic than necessary. Being hurricane ready is a smart goal, and now is an excellent time to put hurricane preparedness on the front burner. Peak hurricane season has arrived.

Mid-August through the end of October historically is when most hurricanes form. Remember HIM? Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria made landfall between mid-August and the end of September in 2017. Two Category 4 storms and one Category 5 occurred in a matter of weeks in a season predicted to be slightly above average. Last year’s Hurricane Michael hit in late October. While this year’s latest prediction is for a “near-average season,” hurricane researchers will tell you that it only takes one hurricane making landfall near you to break the law of averages.

Frankly, natural disasters do not ebb and flow; there is no rhythmic pattern to them. Forecasting science is constantly improving, and that means we have a better idea of where hurricanes may be heading. But estimating intensity remains a challenge. You can’t “go with the flow.” Rather, be ready for whatever the wind brings.

The following stations will be broadcasting live interviews (times are Eastern Standard):

8:10 AM: Norfolk, VA, Radio 47  WXGM-FM
8:20 AM: Minneapolis, MN, Radio 15  KWLM-AM
8:40 AM: Raleigh, NC, TV 25 WRAZ FOX
9:10 AM: Albuquerque, NM, Radio 47 KDAZ-FM
9:15 AM: Myrtle Beach, NC, TV 95 WPBF ABC
9:45 AM: Dallas, TX, Radio 5 KKVI-AM/FM
10:25 AM: Norfolk, VA, TV 44 WTKR CBS
12:00 PM: San Diego, CA, Radio 29 KOGO-AM
12:10 PM: Los Angeles, CA, Radio 2 KMET- AM
12:40 PM: St. Louis, MO, TV 21 KTVI FO

These stations are taping segments and should air them over the next few days:

Austin, TX,  TV 40 KEYE CBS
Birmingham, AL,  TV WBRC FOX
Charleston, SC, TV 94  WCIV ABC
Chattanooga, TN, TV 83  WRCB NBC
Chicago, IL, Radio 3  WSRB-FM
Columbus, OH, Radio 34  WSNY-AM
Fort Myers, FL, TV 55  WFTX FOX
Jacksonville, FL, WTLV NBC
Mobile-Pensacola, AL, TV 58  WPMI NBC
Myrtle Beach, SC, TV 95 WPDE ABC
Roanoke, VA, TV 67  WFXR FOX
Roanoke, VA, TV 68  WSET ABC
Savannah, GA, TV 93  WSAV NBC
San Antonio, TX, TV 31  WOAI NBC
Seattle, WA, Radio 12  KORE-FM
Tampa, FL, TV 11 WTSP CBS

The roster of stations is subject to change. If you’re in one of the cities listed, please tune in!