Hurricane Earl – a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale (sustained winds 111-130mph) – is currently bringing heavy rain and high winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands in the Caribbean as it makes its way toward the west-northwest near 15 miles per hour.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the center of Earl is expected to pass near or over the northernmost Virgin Islands this afternoon and this evening.

A hurricane warning is currently in effect for Anguilla, St. Martin and St. Barts, St. Maarten, Saba and St Eustatius, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and the Puerto Rican islands of Culebra and Vieques.

Jeff Masters’ Wunderblog reports that once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina:

“History suggests that a storm in Earl’s current location has a 25 percent chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl’s chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that.

None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina’s Outer Banks and to Massachusetts.†

Here’s the latest forecast track from the NHC:

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

Check out I.I.I. hurricane fact files and market share by state.