Hurricane Landfall Update

Day two of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season and a couple of updated hurricane landfall forecasts have been released. Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project team today downgraded its forecast and said the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline this year is 48 percent, compared with the last-century average of 52 percent. There is a 28 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East coast, including the Florida Peninsula, and a 28 percent chance of a Gulf Coast landfall, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas. Meanwhile reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter said the Gulf Coast region, from Texas to the Alabama-Florida border, remains the most vulnerable to hurricanes coming ashore in the U.S. in 2009, with a landfall rate of 0.65 (represents the mean number of landfalling tropical cyclones in that region). This compares with an average landfall rate for 1951-2007 of 0.66. For the Southeast region, a forecast 0.36 mean rate of landfall has been calculated for 2009 (slightly lower than the long term average of 0.41) while the regions of Florida and the Northeast have mean landfall rates of 0.29 and 0.21, respectively. Check out I.I.I. information on hurricanes.

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