Ill Winds

Batten down the hatches! Today marks the official launch of the Insurance Information Institute’s industry blog. An inauspicious start some might say, particularly following the upgraded forecast for the 2007 hurricane season from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project. So what do we have to look forward to? In a nutshell: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 of which will be intense (Category 3-4-5). The forecasters also put the probability of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline at 74 percent; the probability of a major storm hitting the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula at 50 percent; and the probability of the same at 49 percent for the Gulf Coast. We may have been spared in 2006, but flashback to April 2005 when the CSU team upped its forecast to 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of them intense. Sound familiar? The 2005 season actually saw a record 26 named storms, 14 hurricanes, of which seven were intense. Check out the I.I.I.’s catastrophe facts for more information.  

2 thoughts on “Ill Winds”

  1. Just wanted to say Thank you for heading up blog. It is good to know that there is now an Insurance specific blog to view and keep up with Industry events from a grass roots perspective.

  2. For 2004, 2005 and 2006 most if not all cat models got the hurricane seasons wrong in terms of frequency, severity or both. In fact most still missed 2006 (claiming El Nino, Sahara sand storms, etc) after announcing modifications to their models

    It is a reminder that all models represent a hypothesis (i.e. educated best guess), and perhaps the past several hurricane seasons serve to reinforce that concept.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *