Predicting the Super Bowl Winner

Who will win Super Bowl XLVI this Sunday?

If you’re wondering whether you should be backing the New York Giants or the New England Patriots look no further than the Super Bowl Prediction System of sports statistician John Dewan.

In his Stat of the Week, the owner of Baseball Info Solutions and co-publisher of ACTA Sports asks us to consider four things:

  1. The Patriots rank 31st in total defense (yards allowed) in the NFL this year.
  2. The Packers, another juggernaut, ranked 32nd and lost earlier in the playoffs.
  3. Defense wins championships.
  4. The Super Bowl Prediction System loves defense.

But if you’re thinking this must mean the Patriots are going to lose making the New York Giants the next Super Bowl champs, the Super Bowl Prediction System suggests you’re wrong.

Dewan goes on to note that while the Patriots rank 31st in total yards allowed, it’s points, not yards that count in the score. In points allowed, the Patriots are in the top half of the league ranking 15th (allowing 342 points during the regular season) while the New York Giants rank 25th (allowing 400 points).

He says:

The Super Bowl Prediction System was off its game last year picking the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Green Bay Packers beat the Steelers 31-25. But the system still has a great track record. It has picked 16 of the last 21 winners (76 percent). This year, the system thinks the Patriots will avenge their Super Bowl XLII loss to the Giants.†

Dewan adds  that the Super Bowl Prediction System comprises 12 different statistical indicators and each one correctly predicts the Super Bowl winner 55-65 percent of the time. Evaluated collectively, the system is 76 percent in the last 12 games.

By the way, for those of you throwing a Super Bowl party, the I.I.I. has tips on how to be a responsible host.

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