Early 2017 Atlantic hurricane forecasts are predicting fewer storms, but here’s why coastal residents shouldn’t let their guard down.
Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project: “Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
London’s TSR (Tropical Storm Risk): “The precision of hurricane outlooks issued in April is low and large uncertainties remain for the 2017 hurricane season.”
Forecasters believe development of potential El Niño conditions in the coming months will suppress storm activity.
What are the numbers?
CSU: 11 named storms, with 4 hurricanes and 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes. The median between 1981 and 2000 was 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes and two major hurricanes. U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated at 80 percent of the long-period average.
TSR: 11 named storms, with 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. 2017 Atlantic hurricane activity will be 30 percent below 1950-2016 long-term average.
Following Insuring Florida blog for more on hurricane preparedness.