Revised Hurricane Forecast

It’s surely the calm before the storm, but London-based forecaster Tropical Storm Risk has just downgraded its forecast for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. Earlier TSR had predicted there was an 86 percent chance that hurricane activity in 2007 would be in the top one-third of years historically. Now that probability is at 72 percent. However, it’s important to note that TSR’s July update still points to an above-average season in 2007, with a 73 percent above-average probability of a storm striking the U.S. Four tropical storms are forecast to strike the U.S., two of which are expected to be hurricanes. According to TSR, the main reason for the forecast reduction is the fact that trade winds will be stronger than previously thought in August and September. Our readers constantly remind us that forecasts and predictions are just that. The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season is barely a month old and the period from August through October is generally the most active, with a peak in early to mid-September. Check out I.I.I.’s disaster information site for more info.  

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