Revised Hurricane Forecasts

Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project team today issued an update of its seasonal hurricane forecast. The team continues to predict an above-average season in 2008, with above-average probability of at least one major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane making landfall in the U.S. Its season estimate of 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes remains unchanged, but includes Tropical Storm Arthur which formed on May 31. Meanwhile, London-based consortium Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) yesterday reduced its outlook, predicting that Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling activity will be slightly (20 percent) above the long-term (1950-2007) norm, down from its 35 percent above-norm prediction in April (see our April 7th posting). TSR said the lowering of the forecast is due to the unexpected rapid waning of La Nina conditions now occurring in the tropical Pacific. TSR expects four tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which two will be hurricanes. Check out further I.I.I. facts & stats  on hurricanes.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *