Subprime Professional Impact

We’re in D.C. today at the Professional Liability Underwriting Society (PLUS) International Conference. Much to talk about for professional liability lines, especially given recent headlines on the subprime market turmoil. Reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter just released a briefing on this very topic titled: “Credit Market Aftershock Threatens Professional Lines Profits.” In its analysis Guy Carp notes that estimates of the insurance impact range from $1 billion to $3 billion, but when the dust settles total insured losses are likely to be at the top end of that scale. Most of the credit crunch’s impact will affect the D&O product line, although E&O suits, ERISA actions and other suits have been filed and could lead to substantial further insurance losses, according to the briefing. Guy Carp puts the potential D&O loss at in excess of $2 billion, but cautions that the full impact will not be known until 2008 or 2009. For our take on the subprime issue, check out a paper authored by Dr. Steven Weisbart, I.I.I. vice president and chief economist.

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