Super Bowl XLIV: a Toss-Up

It’s Super Bowl weekend and whether you’re a Colts or a Saints fan, before you place your bets you might want to take a look at the prediction of sports statistician John Dewan. In his Stat of the Week, the owner of Baseball Info Solutions and co-publisher of ACTA Sports, says: “All the betting lines favor the Colts right now by five or six points, but in my book it’s a toss-up. If I were a betting man, I’d take the Saints and the points. But if you do that, don’t blame me if you lose. It’s that close.† Dewan’s Super Bowl prediction system comprises 12 different statistical indicators: five defensive, four offensive and three based on overall stats. The strongest indicators overall are the defensive ones and each one taken by itself predicts the Super Bowl winner 56 percent to 69 percent of the time. Taken collectively, the indicators have an even better track record. The system favors the team that wins the most indicators and it has predicted 15 of the last 19 Super Bowl winners. Not bad odds! By the way, if you’re throwing a Super Bowl party, check out I.I.I. tips for being a responsible host.

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