Super Bowl XLV: Who Will Win?

This Sunday’s Super Bowl is nearly upon us and in keeping with our annual tradition we take a look at the prediction of sports statistician John Dewan to see if we should be cheering for the Green Bay Packers or the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In his Stat of the Week, the owner of Baseball Info Solutions and co-publisher of ACTA Sports says:

The betting lines currently favor the Packers, but the Super Bowl Prediction system picks the Steelers.†

Dewan’s unique Super Bowl prediction system comprises 12 different statistical indicators: five defensive, four offensive and three based on overall stats (the defensive ones are the strongest indicators overall). Each one taken by itself predicts the Super Bowl winner 55 percent to 67 percent of the time.

Taken collectively, the indicators have an even better track record. The system favors the team that wins the most indicators and it has predicted 16 of the last 20 Super Bowl winners.

This year the prediction system picks the Pittsburgh Steelers to win their seventh franchise Super Bowl and third in the last six years.

The system has the Steelers winning nine of the 12 indicators. For the record, teams with eight or more indicators have won 21 of 26 Super Bowls.

Looks like the statistical odds favor the underdog, so place your bets!

By the way, if you’re throwing a Super Bowl party, check out I.I.I. tips for being a responsible host.

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