Hurricane Delta is surging closer to the U.S. Gulf Coast and is expected to land on the evening of October 9 somewhere on Louisiana’s southwest coast. Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU research scientist and Triple-I non-resident scholar gives an update on Delta in the video clip above.
The hurricane has grown in size since yesterday and a large area of the country will see impacts from the storm. Hurricane warnings are in place from High Island, TX to Morgan City, LA, and storm surge warnings extend from High Island, TX to the mouth of the Pearl River.
In addition to strong winds Delta is expected to bring storm surge as high as 7 to 11 feet along the coast of central LA, rainfall totals are forecast to be from 5 to 10 inches from southwest to central LA, with isolated totals of up to 15 inches.
Delta is on track to hit the same area of Louisiana where Hurricane Laura landed only six weeks ago. New Orleans, which will likely miss the storm, was still preparing for the possibility of tornadoes. Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency. Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves also declared a state of emergency, with forecasters saying southern Mississippi could see heavy rain and flash flooding.
Residents from eastern Texas to the Florida Panhandle should prepare for Hurricane Delta, which is forecast to make landfall in Louisiana on Friday, October 9.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns Delta’s impacts will include destructive winds, torrential rain, life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, isolated tornadoes and widespread power outages.
Delta may intensify to a Category 3 storm as it approaches the U.S.’s Gulf Coast states. The region will begin to experience the storm’s impacts on Thursday, October 8.
In what has become the second most active Atlantic hurricane season on record with 25 named storms (there were 27 in 2005), Delta will be the fifth hurricane and record-setting 10th tropical cyclone to make landfall in the continental U.S. this year. Previous 2020 landfalls include Hurricanes Hanna, Isaias, Laura and Sally, and Tropical Storms Bertha, Beta, Cristobal, Fay and Marco.
Preparedness tips for Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas residents who may be impacted by Delta:
Make sure your hurricane kit includes a minimum seven-day supply of non-perishable food and drinking water (one gallon per person, per day) for all family members and pets, as well as a one-week supply of medications for everyone in your household. Also include COVID-19 safety supplies such as two face coverings per person and hand sanitizer
Write down the name and phone number of your insurer and insurance professional and keep this information either in your wallet or purse
Purchase emergency supplies, such as batteries and flashlights
Prepare your yard by removing all outdoor furniture, lawn items, planters and other materials that could become airborne in high winds
Fill your car’s gasoline tank because long gas lines and fuel shortages often follow in areas impacted by a storm
Damage caused by hurricanes and tropical cyclones are covered under different insurance policies. Wind-caused property damage is covered under standard homeowners, renters and business insurance policies. Renters’ insurance covers a renter’s possessions while the landlord insures the structure.
Property damage to a home, a renter’s possessions, and a business – resulting from a flood – is generally covered under FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies, if the homeowner, renter or business has purchased one. A growing number of private insurers also offer flood insurance.
Private-passenger vehicles damaged or destroyed by either wind or flooding are covered under the optional comprehensive portion of an auto insurance policy.
Triple-I has additional hurricane and flood preparedness resources:
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season activity is projected to be “extremely active,” according to Triple-I non-resident scholar Dr. Phil Klotzbach.
Dr. Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University (CSU), and his team issued an updated forecast on August 5. They project the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will have 24 named storms (up from 20 in the previous forecast),12 hurricanes (up from nine), and five major hurricanes (up from four).
The 24 named storms include the storms that have already formed. An average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The activity is driven in part by reduced vertical wind shear. Strong wind shear tears apart hurricanes. Observed wind shear has been very low in July, which means it’s also expected to be low at the peak of the season from August to October.
The probabilities of U.S. hurricane landfalls are also elevated simply because we are expecting more Atlantic storms. The U.S. has already experienced two landfalls this season with Hanna and Isaias.
People in hurricane-prone areas are advised to have a plan in place and follow the directions of local emergency managers if storms threaten.
Please click on the links below for Triple-I’s hurricane preparedness guides:
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season activity is still projected to be “well above average,” according to Triple-I non-resident scholar, Dr. Phil Klotzbach.
Dr. Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University (CSU), and his team issued an updated forecast on July 7. They project the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will have 20 named storms (up from 19 in the previous forecast),nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
The 20 named storms include the storms that have already formed. An average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The active season is driven in part by low odds of El Niño conditions in the summer/fall and well above average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. The warm waters fuel tropical cyclones.
Please click on the links below for Triple-I’s hurricane preparedness guides:
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season activity is projected to be “well above average,” according to Triple-I non-resident scholar Dr. Phil Klotzbach.
Dr. Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University (CSU), and his team issued an updated forecast on June 4. They project the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will have 19 named storms (including the storms that already formed), 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
Probabilities for at least one major (category 3-4-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas are:
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 70 percent (average for last century is 52 percent)
2) U.S. East Coast, including Peninsula Florida – 46 percent (average for last century is 31 percent)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 45 percent (average for last century is 30 percent)
The probability for at least one major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (10-20°n, 88-60°w) is 59 percent (average for last century is 42 percent).
An early forecast had predicted eight hurricanes. A typical year has 12 named storms and six hurricanes — three of them major. Major hurricanes are defined as Category 3, 4, and 5 storms, where wind speeds reach at least 111 miles per hour.
The active 2020 season is partly due to a warmer than normal eastern Atlantic, which is typically associated with more active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal have already formed in the Atlantic as of June 2nd.
“It is important to recognize that these forecasts are not perfect,” said Klotzbach. And even when correct “we can’t say when or where these storms are going to track or if a significant hurricane is going to make landfall.”
“The general public needs to remember that it only takes one storm to make this an active season for you. So now is the time to get the hurricane preparedness kit together so that you will be ready when and if storms threaten,” he concluded.
Take steps to mitigate risks for your home and business – make simple repairs/clean-up of property.
Gather emergency supplies (have a minimum seven days of non-perishable food, one gallon of drinking water per person per day, and medications for all family members).
Take an inventory of your personal property – photos of possessions will make it much easier to file an insurance claim after the storm.
Review your homeowners, auto and business insurance coverage with your insurance professional to ensure you have appropriate coverage in case of loss.
If you don’t already have it, ask your insurance professional about adding flood coverage to your home or business policy. Flood damage is excluded under standard homeowners and renters insurance policies and ninety percent of natural disasters involve flooding. You don’t need to live in a flood zone to incur flood damage from a storm.
Prepare evacuation routes well ahead of time. Make sure you know how to quickly and safely escape your area if emergency management officials issue evacuation orders.
Don’t forget about your pets. When evacuating, many residents leave their pets behind because they have no place to take them. Make sure your local shelters will accept pets and gather information on hotels and motels that allow pets in guest rooms.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an above-normal hurricane season in terms of the total number of storms. NOAA’s 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes.
An early forecast by Colorado State University predicted 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes for the year, with above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. The Colorado State team, led by Triple-I non-resident scholar Dr. Phil Klotzbach, will have an updated forecast on June 4.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through
Hurricane preparedness during the COVID-19
This year the COVID-19 pandemic adds a layer of difficulty
to hurricane preparedness, particularly when it comes to evacuation plans. Florida
state officials anticipate the challenge of preparing shelters with
social distancing measures in place and have asked FEMA for guidance. New
Orleans is advising
residents to plan to include hand sanitizer and face coverings in their
emergency home kits and go-bags.
As an alternative to emergency shelters, this P/C 360 article
suggests that those who are able to do so should plan to stay with friends or
relatives or secure a hotel room at least 100 miles inland from their home.
Hurricanes can strike with little advance warning so it’s vital to prepare.
Protect yourself and others when filling prescriptions by limiting in-person visits to the pharmacy. Sign up for mail order delivery or call in your prescription ahead of time and use drive-through windows or curbside pickup, if available.
If you need to evacuate, prepare a “go kit” with personal items you cannot do without during an emergency. Include items that can help protect you and others from COVID-19, such as hand sanitizer or bar or liquid soap if not available, and two cloth face coverings for each person. Face covers should not be used by children under the age of 2. They also should not be used by people having trouble breathing, or who are unconscious, incapacitated, or unable to remove the mask without assistance.
When you check on neighbors and friends, be sure to follow social distancing recommendations (staying at least 6 feet, about 2 arms’ length, from others) and other CDC recommendations to protect yourself and others.
If you need to go to a disaster shelter, follow CDC recommendations for staying safe and healthy in a public disaster shelter during the COVID-19 pandemic.