# Predicting the Super Bowl Winner

Who will win Super Bowl XLVI this Sunday?

If you’re wondering whether you should be backing the New York Giants or the New England Patriots look no further than the Super Bowl Prediction System of sports statistician John Dewan.

In his Stat of the Week, the owner of Baseball Info Solutions and co-publisher of ACTA Sports asks us to consider four things:

1. The Patriots rank 31st in total defense (yards allowed) in the NFL this year.
2. The Packers, another juggernaut, ranked 32nd and lost earlier in the playoffs.
3. Defense wins championships.
4. The Super Bowl Prediction System loves defense.

But if you’re thinking this must mean the Patriots are going to lose making the New York Giants the next Super Bowl champs, the Super Bowl Prediction System suggests you’re wrong.

Dewan goes on to note that while the Patriots rank 31st in total yards allowed, itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s points, not yards that count in the score. In points allowed, the Patriots are in the top half of the league ranking 15th (allowing 342 points during the regular season) while the New York Giants rank 25th (allowing 400 points).

He says:

The Super Bowl Prediction System was off its game last year picking the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Green Bay Packers beat the Steelers 31-25. But the system still has a great track record. It has picked 16 of the last 21 winners (76 percent). This year, the system thinks the Patriots will avenge their Super Bowl XLII loss to the Giants.Ã¢â‚¬ 

Dewan addsÃ‚  that the Super Bowl Prediction System comprises 12 different statistical indicators and each one correctly predicts the Super Bowl winner 55-65 percent of the time. Evaluated collectively, the system is 76 percent in the last 12 games.

By the way, for those of you throwing a Super Bowl party, the I.I.I. has tips on how to be a responsible host.

# Super Bowl XLV: Who Will Win?

This SundayÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Super Bowl is nearly upon us and in keeping with our annual tradition we take a look at the prediction of sports statistician John Dewan to see if we should be cheering for the Green Bay Packers or the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In his Stat of the Week, the owner of Baseball Info Solutions and co-publisher of ACTA Sports says:

The betting lines currently favor the Packers, but the Super Bowl Prediction system picks the Steelers.Ã¢â‚¬ 

DewanÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s unique Super Bowl prediction system comprises 12 different statistical indicators: five defensive, four offensive and three based on overall stats (the defensive ones are the strongest indicators overall). Each one taken by itself predicts the Super Bowl winner 55 percent to 67 percent of the time.

Taken collectively, the indicators have an even better track record. The system favors the team that wins the most indicators and it has predicted 16 of the last 20 Super Bowl winners.

This year the prediction system picks the Pittsburgh Steelers to win their seventh franchise Super Bowl and third in the last six years.

The system has the Steelers winning nine of the 12 indicators. For the record, teams with eight or more indicators have won 21 of 26 Super Bowls.

Looks like the statistical odds favor the underdog, so place your bets!

By the way, if youÃ¢â‚¬â„¢re throwing a Super Bowl party, check out I.I.I. tips for being a responsible host.

# Super Bowl XLIV: a Toss-Up

ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Super Bowl weekend and whether youÃ¢â‚¬â„¢re a Colts or a Saints fan, before you place your bets you might want to take a look at the prediction of sports statistician John Dewan. In his Stat of the Week, the owner of Baseball Info Solutions and co-publisher of ACTA Sports, says: Ã¢â‚¬Å“All the betting lines favor the Colts right now by five or six points, but in my book itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s a toss-up. If I were a betting man, IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢d take the Saints and the points. But if you do that, donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t blame me if you lose. ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s that close.Ã¢â‚¬  DewanÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Super Bowl prediction system comprises 12 different statistical indicators: five defensive, four offensive and three based on overall stats. The strongest indicators overall are the defensive ones and each one taken by itself predicts the Super Bowl winner 56 percent to 69 percent of the time. Taken collectively, the indicators have an even better track record. The system favors the team that wins the most indicators and it has predicted 15 of the last 19 Super Bowl winners. Not bad odds! By the way, if youÃ¢â‚¬â„¢re throwing a Super Bowl party, check out I.I.I. tips for being a responsible host.

# MLB Champ Forecast

With the World Series all but upon us, we happily give away the pen for today’s posting to I.I.I. executive vice president and resident baseball expert Cary Schneider for his take on the 2007 postseason finale.

Defying all odds, the team with the fewest wins among all the division champs went on to win the World Series last year. So predicting the outcome of the World Series is a riskier task than ever. Rather than speculate on which team should win, I prefer to identify the team that should lose. My overwhelming pick is the sentimental favorite, the Chicago Cubs. After all, they have not been in the fall classic since 1945 and have not won one since 1908.  I believe the team’s historic futility must continue. A Cubs victory in the World Series would alter the natural balance of the universe, the laws of physics as well as all established actuarial principles, particularly Simpson’s Paradox of Confounding Variables.  Besides, I’m a St. Louis Cardinals fan. World Series winner? Anyone but the Cubs.