While three of the major hurricane forecasters have reduced by a smidgen their predictions for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, the season as a whole is still expected to be above-average as is the chance of a major hurricane making U.S. landfall.
Bear in mind that to-date the 2013 season has seen four named storms (Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dorian) Ã¢â‚¬“ none of which reached hurricane status.
HereÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s how the revised forecasts stack up:
Colorado State UniversityÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project now predicts 18 named tropical storms, including eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3-4-5). This is down slightly from its June forecast which called for 18 named storms, including nine hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The CSU team also continues its call for above-average probability of a major hurricane making U.S. or Caribbean landfall.
London-based consortium Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) is calling for 14.8 named tropical storms, 6.9 hurricanes, of which three will be intense. This is down from its early June forecast which called for 15.6 named storms, 7.7 hurricanes including 3.5 major hurricanes.Ã‚ TSR predicts North Atlantic and U.S. hurricane activity in 2013 will be about 20 percent above the long-term (1950-2012) norm.
WSI (Weather Services International Corp) has also reduced its forecast numbers slightly, to 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and three intense hurricanes, compared to its earlier forecast of 16/9/4. WSI noted that North Atlantic temperatures have not warmed as fast as expected this summer, and if current trends persist, it may have to reduce these numbers even further.
Artemis blog has a round-up of the numbers on its 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season page.
Check out I.I.I. facts and stats on hurricanes.