U.S. Landfall Predictions

The Gulf coast, from Texas to the Louisiana/Florida border, is most vulnerable to tropical cyclones coming ashore in the United States in 2009. An update from Guy Carpenter in collaboration with WSI Corporation puts the landfall rate for the Gulf region at 0.65 for the upcoming 2009 hurricane season (compared to the 1951-2007 average landfall rate of 0.66). The Southeast coastline, from the Atlantic Florida-Georgia border to Cape Hatteras, has the next highest predicted landfall rate for this year at 0.50 (higher than the long-term average of 0.41). The good news, if there is any, is that the Florida coastline appears to have a below average vulnerability to storms this year. It has a  forecast landfall rate of 0.36, significantly lower than the long-term average landfall rate of 0.49. Meanwhile, the Northeast coastline from Cape Hatteras to Maine has a forecast landfall rate of 0.30, on par with its long-term average of 0.29. The rates represent the mean number of landfalling tropical cyclones in a given region for the upcoming 2009 hurricane season. Check out related I.I.I. facts & stats on hurricanes.  

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