Hurricanes

Hurricanes

In May 2014 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center projected eight to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or more), with three to six becoming hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) and of them, one or two becoming major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher).

A normal season, based on averages from 1980 to 2010, has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140522_hurricaneoutlook_atlantic.html

Over a dozen states were impacted by Hurricane Sandy in October 2012. Sandy caused $18.75 billion in insured property losses, excluding flood insurance claims covered by the federal flood insurance program, according to Property Claim Services (PCS), a division of Verisk Analytics. New York and New Jersey suffered the largest private insurance losses from Sandy, according to PCS.

September is the most common month for hurricanes making landfall in the U.S., followed by August and October, according to an analysis of 1851 to 2011 data by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. No hurricanes made a U.S. landfall before June and after November during the period studied.

2013 AND 2014 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season produced 13 tropical storms, two of which became hurricanes, according to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Neither of these became major hurricanes, which is defined as a storm that reaches Category 3 or higher. 2013 was the first year with no major hurricanes since 1994, and it had the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982. Also, 2013 had no U.S. hurricanes that met PCS’s catastrophe threshold of at least $25 million in insured property losses. The first hurricane of the season, Humberto, reached hurricane force on September 11, but did not make landfall. It is topped only by 2002’s Hurricane Gustav as the latest forming first hurricane. Ingrid, the second 2013 hurricane, made landfall in Mexico on September 16. Together with Pacific Tropical Storm Manuel, it caused massive flooding and over 40 deaths. Andrea, an Atlantic tropical storm, made landfall in Florida on June 6 and caused one death. Losses from Andrea did not reach PCS’s catastrophe threshold.

Hurricane Arthur, the first hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, was also the first hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. mainland since Isaac in August, 2012, and the first Category 2 hurricane in the U.S. since Ike in 2008, according to the National Weather Service. Arthur became a hurricane on July 3 and made landfall over Shackleford Banks, between Cape Lookout and Beaufort, North Carolina. The storm weakened as it passed Cape Cod and New England. Widespread power outages were reported throughout coastal eastern North Carolina along with surge flooding up to 4 to 5 feet above normal.

 

U.S. LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES, 2013

Source: © 2014 Munich Re, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As of January 2014.

View Archived Graphs

 

 

CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE LOSSES IN THE UNITED STATES, 2004-2013

($ billions)

    Estimated insured loss     Estimated insured loss
Year Number of catastrophic
hurricanes (1)
Dollars when
occurred 
In 2013
dollars (2)
Year Number of catastrophic
hurricanes (1)
Dollars when
occurred 
In 2013
dollars (2)
2004 5 $22.9 $27.0 2009 0 (3) NA NA
2005 6  58.3 67.6 2010 0 (3) NA NA
2006 0 (3) NA NA 2011 1 $4.3 $4.4
2007 0 (3) NA NA 2012 2 19.7 20.0
2008 3 15.2 16.3 2013 0 (3) NA NA

(1) Hurricanes causing insured property losses of at least $25 million in 1997 dollars and affecting a significant number of policyholders and insurers. Excludes losses covered by the federally administered National Flood Insurance Program.
(2) Adjusted for inflation through 2013 by ISO using the GDP implicit price deflator.
(3) No hurricane met the PCS definition of a catastrophe.

NA=Not applicable.

Source: The Property Claim Services (PCS) unit of ISO, a Verisk Analytics company.

View Archived Tables

 

COSTLIEST U.S. HURRICANES

The following chart from PCS ranks historic hurricanes based on their insured losses, adjusted for inflation. The chart beneath it, from AIR Worldwide Corporation, estimates insured property losses from notable hurricanes from past years, if they were to hit the nation again today with the same meteorological parameters.

 

THE TEN MOST COSTLY HURRICANES IN THE UNITED STATES (1)

($ millions)

        Estimated insured loss (2)
Rank Date Location Hurricane Dollars when
occurred
In 2013
dollars (3)
1 Aug. 25-30, 2005 AL, FL, GA, LA, MS, TN Hurricane Katrina $41,100 $47,622
2 Aug. 24-26, 1992 FL, LA Hurricane Andrew 15,500 23,386
3 Oct. 28-31, 2012 CT, DC, DE, MA, MD, ME, NC, NH,
NJ, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, VT, WV
Hurricane Sandy 18,750 19,033
4 Sep. 12-14, 2008 AR, IL, IN, KY, LA, MO, OH, PA, TX Hurricane Ike 12,500 13,426
5 Oct. 24, 2005 FL Hurricane Wilma 10,300 11,934
6 Aug. 13-14, 2004 FL, NC, SC Hurricane Charley 7,475 8,939
7 Sep. 15-21, 2004 AL, DE, FL, GA, LA, MD, MS, NC, NJ,
NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV
Hurricane Ivan 7,110 8,502
8 Sep. 17-22, 1989 GA, NC, PR, SC, U.S. Virgin Islands, VA Hurricane Hugo 4,195 6,937
9 Sep. 20-26, 2005 AL, AR, FL, LA, MS, TN, TX Hurricane Rita 5,627 6,520
10 Sep. 3-9, 2004 FL, GA, NC, NY, SC Hurricane Frances 4,595 5,495

(1) Includes hurricanes occurring through 2013.                    
(2) Property coverage only. Does not include flood damage covered by the federally adminstered National Flood Insurance Program.                    
(3) Adjusted for inflation through 2013 by ISO using the GDP implicit price deflator.                    
                    
Source: The Property Claim Services® (PCS®) unit of ISO, a Verisk Analytics company.

 

The following chart from PCS ranks historic hurricanes based on their insured losses, adjusted for inflation. The chart beneath it, from Karen Clark and Company, estimates insured property losses from notable hurricanes from past years, if they were to hit the nation again today with the same meteorological parameters.

 

ESTIMATED INSURED LOSSES FOR THE TOP TEN HISTORICAL HURRICANES BASED ON CURRENT EXPOSURES (1)

($ billions)

Rank Date Event Category Insured loss
(current exposures)
1 Sep. 18, 1926 Miami Hurricane 4 $125
2 Aug. 24, 1992 Hurricane Andrew 5 57
3 Sep. 17, 1947 1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane 4 53
4 Sep. 17, 1928 Great Okeechobee Hurricane 5 51
5 Aug. 29, 2005 Hurricane Katrina 3 (2) 45
6 Sep. 9, 1965 Hurricane Betsy 3 45
7 Sep. 9, 1900 Galveston Hurricane of 1900 4 41
8 Sep. 10, 1960 Hurricane Donna 4 35
9 Sep. 21, 1938 The Great New England Hurricane 3 33
10 Sep. 15, 1950 Hurricane Easy 3 23

(1) Modeled loss to property, contents, and business interruption and additional living expenses for residential, mobile home, commercial, and auto exposures as of December 31, 2011. Losses include demand surge.
(2) Refers to Katrina’s second landfall in Louisiana.

Source: AIR Worldwide Corporation.

 

 

HURRICANES AND RELATED DEATHS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1993-2013

Year Total
hurricanes
Made landfall
as hurricane
in the U.S.
Deaths (1)
1993 1 1 3
1994 1 0 8
1995 3 3 29
1996 3 2 59
1997 1 1 6
1998 10 3 23
1999 8 2 60
2000 8 0 4
2001 9 0 42
2002 4 1 5
2003 7 2 24
2004 9 6 (2) 59
2005 15 7 1,518
2006 5 0 0
2007 6 1 1
2008 8 4 (3) 41
2009 3 1 (4) 6
2010 12 0 11
2011 7 1 44
2012 10 1 (5) 83
2013 2 0 1

(1) Includes fatalities from high winds of less than hurricane force from tropical storms.
(2) One hurricane (Alex) is considered a strike but not technically a landfall.
(3) Includes one hurricane (Hanna) which made landfall as a tropical storm.
(4) Hurricane Ida, which made landfall as a tropical storm.
(5) Does not include Hurricane Sandy which made landfall as a post-tropical storm.

Source: Insurance Information Institute from data supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Hurricane Center.

View Archived Tables

 

 

ESTIMATED VALUE OF INSURED COASTAL PROPERTIES VULNERABLE TO HURRICANES BY STATE, 2012 (1)

($ billions)

Rank State Coastal Total exposure (2) Coastal as a
percent of total
1 New York  $2,923.1 $4,724.2 62%
2 Florida  2,862.3 3,640.1 79
3 Texas  1,175.3 4,580.7 26
4 Massachusetts  849.6 1,561.4 54
5 New Jersey  713.9 2,129.9 34
6 Connecticut  567.8 879.1 65
7 Louisiana  293.5 823.0 36
8 South Carolina  239.3 843.6 28
9 Virginia  182.3 1,761.7 10
10 Maine  164.6 285.5 58
11 North Carolina  163.5 1,795.1 9
12 Alabama  118.2 917.8 13
13 Georgia  106.7 1,932.2 6
14 Delaware  81.9 208.9 39
15 New Hampshire  64.0 278.7 23
16 Mississippi  60.6 468.5 13
17 Rhode Island  58.3 207.5 28
18 Maryland  17.3 1,293.4 1
  All states above  $10,642.2 $28,331.4 38%
  Total U.S.  $10,642.2 $64,624.3 16%

(1) Includes residential and commercial properties, as of December 31, 2012. Ranked by value of insured coastal property.
(2) Total exposure is an estimate of the actual total value of all property in the state that is insured or can be insured, including the full replacement value of structures and their contents, additional living expenses and the time value of business interruption coverage.

Source: AIR Worldwide.

View Archived Tables

  • The insured value of properties in coastal areas in the United States totaled $10.6 trillion in 2012, according to AIR Worldwide.

 

TOP THREE STATES BY INFLATION-ADJUSTED INSURED CATASTROPHE LOSSES, 1983-2013 (1)

(2013 $ billions)

(1) Adjusted for inflation through 2013 by ISO using the GDP implicit price deflator. Excludes catastrophes causing direct losses less than $25 million in 1997 dollars. Excludes flood damage covered by the federally administered National Flood Insurance Program.
(2) Includes the other 47 states plus Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Source: The Property Claim Services(PCS) unit of ISO, a Verisk Analytics company.

View Archived Graphs

 

TOP TEN STATES, BY POPULATION CHANGE IN COASTAL COUNTIES, 1960-2010

  By number change    By percent change 
Rank State Number change Rank State Percent change
1 California 13,130,000 1 Florida 270.1%
2 Florida 10,360,000 2 Alaska 239.8
3 Texas 3,732,000 3 New Hampshire 198.0
4 Washington 2,578,000 4 Texas 161.9
5 Virginia 1,903,000 5 Virginia 150.8
6 New York 1,400,000 6 Washington 144.4
7 New Jersey 1,275,000 7 South Carolina 125.1
8 Maryland 938,000 8 Hawaii 115.2
9 Massachusetts 826,000 9 North Carolina 114.4
10 Hawaii 728,000 10 California 107.2

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov/dataviz/visualizations/039/508.php).

View Archived Tables

  • The Atlantic Coast, the Gulf of Mexico and the Hawaiian Islands are home to the U.S. counties most vulnerable to hurricanes. These counties accounted for nearly two-thirds of the nation’s coastline population in 2008, according to the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

 

TOP COASTAL COUNTIES MOST FREQUENTLY HIT BY HURRICANES: 1960-2008

County  State Coastline region   Number of hurricanes Percent change
in population,
1960-2008
Monroe County Florida Gulf of Mexico 15 50.8%
Lafourche Parish Louisiana Gulf of Mexico 14 67.2
Carteret County North Carolina Atlantic 14 104.3
Dare County North Carolina Atlantic 13 465.9
Hyde County North Carolina Atlantic 13 10.1
Jefferson Parish Louisiana Gulf of Mexico 12 108.9
Palm Beach County Florida Atlantic 12 454.7
Miami-Dade County Florida Atlantic 11 156.5
St. Bernard Parish Louisiana Gulf of Mexico 11 17.2
Cameron Parish Louisiana Gulf of Mexico 11 4.8
Terrebonne Parish Louisiana Gulf of Mexico  11 78.7

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Decennial Census of Population and Housing: 1960 to 2000; Population Estimates Program: 2008.

  • Of the 11 most hurricane-prone counties, five are in Louisiana, three are in Florida and two are in North Carolina.
  • 75.7 percent of the Florida population resides in coastal counties, compared with 32.3 percent in Louisiana,  9.9. percent in North Carolina and 47.7 percent for the total United States.

HURRICANE-RELATED FLOODING

A 2013 study of coastal areas by CoreLogic found that 4.2 million homes with $1.1 trillion in total property exposure are at risk of damage caused by hurricane storm surge flooding. In the Atlantic Coast region alone, there are approximately 2.4 million homes at risk, valued at more than $793 billion. Total exposure along the Gulf Coast is $354 billion, with 1.8 million homes at risk for potential storm-surge damage. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover property damage from storm surge. However, such coverage is available through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and some private insurers.

 

TOTAL POTENTIAL RESIDENTIAL EXPOSURE TO HURRICANE STORM-SURGE DAMAGE IN COASTAL STATES, 2013 (1)

Rank (2) State Total exposure
to damage
($ billions)
Number
of homes
1 Florida $386.5 1,478,858
2 New York 135.0 270,458
3 New Jersey 118.8 350,577
4 Virginia 78.0 329,234
5 Louisiana 72.0 411,052
6 South Carolina 65.6 196,784
7 North Carolina 65.2 232,212
8 Texas 50.9 369,071
9 Massachusetts 50.3 107,657
10 Connecticut 35.0 53,614
11 Maryland 22.4 75,262
12 Georgia 20.5 118,004
13 Delaware 15.9 42,178
14 Mississippi 10.3 78,992
15 Rhode Island 7.2 16,722
16 Alabama 4.7 34,854
17 Maine 3.1 10,535
18 New Hampshire 2.7 5,854
19 Pennsylvania 2.6 20,198
20 D.C. 0.1 247
  United States
$1,146.9 4,202,363

(1) Exposure to potential hurricane-driven storm-surge damage to single family homes in states along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Based on estimated property values as of April 2013, as calculated by CoreLogic. Results are not comparable to previous years, as CoreLogic’s methodology has changed.
(2) Ranked on dollar value of exposure to damage.

Source: CoreLogic (www.corelogic.com).

View Archived Tables

         

 

  • Residential properties in Florida have the most exposure to hurricane storm surge damage, followed by New York, New Jersey, Virginia and Louisiana, according to CoreLogic.
  • Among the most densely populated metropolitan areas, the New York City metro area, which includes Long Island and the New Jersey coast, has the highest exposure to potential storm surge damage ($206 billion). The next four areas in terms of exposure were Miami ($100 billion), Virginia Beach ($73 billion), Tampa ($55 billion) and New Orleans ($43 billion).

 

THE TEN MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENTS BY NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM PAYOUTS (1)

Rank Date Event Location Number of
paid losses
Amount paid
($ millions)
Average
paid loss
1 Aug. 2005 Hurricane Katrina AL, FL, GA, LA, MS, TN 167,789 $16,290 $97,083
2 Oct. 2012 Superstorm Sandy CT, DC, DE, MA, MD, ME, NC, NH,
NJ, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, VT, WV
127,782 7,640 59,786
3 Sep. 2008 Hurricane Ike AR, IL, IN, KY, LA, MO, OH, PA, TX 46,478 2,672 57,499
4 Sep. 2004 Hurricane Ivan AL, DE, FL, GA, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NY,
NC, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV
28,261 1,608 56,882
5 Aug. 2011 Hurricane Irene CT, DC, DE, MA, MD, ME, NC, NH,
NJ, NY, PA, RI, VA, VT
44,126 1,328 30,094
6 Jun. 2001 Tropical Storm Allison FL, LA, MS, NJ, PA, TX 30,778 1,106 35,931
7 May 1995  Louisiana Flood LA 31,343 585 18,667
8 Aug. 2012 Tropical Storm Isaac AL, FL, LA, MS 11,967 542 45,279
9 Sep. 2003 Hurricane Isabel DE, MD, NJ, NY, NC, PA, VA, WV 19,868 493 24,833
10 Sep. 2005 Hurricane Rita AL, AR, FL, LA, MS, TN, TX 9,519 474 49,782

(1) Includes events from 1978 to April 30, 2014, as of June 30, 2014. Defined by the National Flood Insurance Program as an event that produces at least 1,500 paid losses. Stated in dollars when occurred.

Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency; U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Hurricane Center.

View Archived Tables