By William Nibbelin, Head of Industry Data and Actuarial Science, Triple-I
Favorable results are expected to continue in 2026 for the U.S. property/casualty insurance industry, which is maintaining steady underwriting performance following several years of economic and underwriting volatility, according to the latest Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View report from Triple-I and Milliman.
The industry’s net combined ratio is forecasted to reach its lowest level in more than a decade in 2026, but uncertainty from catastrophes remains. Insurers’ underwriting profitability is measured by a combined ratio, which is calculated by dividing the sum of claim-related losses and expenses by premium. A combined ratio under 100 indicates a profit. A ratio above 100 indicates a loss.
“While underwriting results have improved, they need to be viewed in the context of several years of elevated loss costs and significant catastrophe losses,” said Patrick Schmid, Ph.D., chief insurance officer at Triple-I. “Performance also varies considerably by line. Against that backdrop, maintaining underwriting strength is critical to ensuring insurers have the financial capacity to pay claims, absorb future catastrophe losses and support the availability of coverage.”
Personal lines results
Homeowners: Underwriting results remain strong following several years of elevated loss costs. Net written premium growth is forecast at 6.4% in 2026, the lowest rate since 2020, while the first-half 2026 direct incurred loss ratio of 49% was the best first-half result in more than a decade. The improvement is helped by lower catastrophe losses, compared with the Los Angeles wildfires that weighed heavily on the first half of 2025.
Personal Auto: Premium growth is slowing considerably, with net written premium forecast at -0.6% in 2026 – 4.6 points lower than 2025 and the second-lowest annual growth rate in more than 15 years, behind only 2020. The net combined ratio is forecast at 95.5, the third consecutive year below 100.
Commercial Lines Results
Commercial Auto: The 2026 net combined ratio forecast of 100.9 is above 100 for the fifth consecutive year. The line is expected to remain above 100 through 2027 and 2028.
General Liability: The 2026 net combined ratio forecast of 107.0 is the largest of all major lines for the third consecutive year, a trend expected to continue into 2027 and 2028.
“General liability and commercial auto continue to present the greatest underwriting challenges, reflecting persistent loss-cost pressures,” said Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, principal and consulting actuary at Milliman. “We expect net combined ratios for both lines to remain above 100, although commercial auto quarterly loss ratios are showing early signs of improvement.”
Workers Compensation: With a forecast of 92.7, the 2026 net combined ratio marks the 12th consecutive year of underwriting gains for this line. Net written premium growth is forecast at -0.7% in 2026, with premium levels expected to stay relatively flat throughout 2027 and 2028.
“After looking at loss costs, payroll, and the direct written premium change for the first half of 2026, overall 2026 net written premium is likely to be slightly lower than premium levels for 2025,” said Donna Glenn, chief actuary and product officer at NCCI.
Economic Outlook
P/C underlying growth, a key driver of new business premium volume, is projected to outpace GDP growth in both 2026 and 2028, though it’s expected to dip below overall growth in 2027. Replacement costs are forecast to rise more slowly than overall inflation in 2027, before outpacing it again in 2028, as the Federal Reserve moves into a tightening cycle expected to slow both GDP and P/C underlying growth in 2027 and 2028.
Geopolitical risk also remains elevated. While inflationary contagion from oil prices hasn’t worsened significantly over the past three months, that could change as winter energy demand picks up.
“Our latest economic outlook points to greater stability for the P/C industry, but with a temporary slowdown in 2027,” said Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, chief economist and data scientist at Triple-I. “While underlying economic conditions remain supportive, monetary policy, replacement costs and geopolitical uncertainty will continue to shape the industry’s growth trajectory through 2028.”
New Deep-Dive Resources
Beyond the quarterly numbers, Triple-I’s State of the Line Issues Briefs continue to surface findings that go deeper than the headline forecasts. Later this month, the homeowners Issues Brief will take a closer look at the growth of residential roof contractor employment, which has outpaced the all-private industry in recent years — a trend tied to rising storm-driven roof claims, and one that brings a corresponding rise in contractor fraud risk worth watching.
