By Jeff Dunsavage, Head of Research Publications and Insights, Triple-I
Strong El Niño conditions are fueling unusually high vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. These conditions disrupt storm formation, even as sea surface temperatures run slightly warmer than normal, leading Colorado State University (CSU) experts to maintain their forecast for a “well below average” 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as it approaches its peak.
“Despite the relatively hurricane-favorable sea surface temperature conditions in the Atlantic, we expect the strong El Niño to dominate the tropical circulation,” said CSU lead forecaster and Triple-I nonresident scholar Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D.
Despite the encouraging forecast, Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan cautions, “It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season. That’s why preparedness remains critical for residents and business owners along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.”
You can learn more about how to prepare from Triple-I’s Hurricane Season Insurance Guide.
