I.I.I. Economic Snapshot: Second Quarter 2018

The Economic Snapshot is I.I.I.’s regular look at important trends that shape the property/casualty industry updated quarterly.

This forward-looking report provides an overview of the P/C industry at the end of the first quarter in context to the overall economy, with a focus on personal and commercial lines financial trends. Real GDP growth has shown unexpected strength in recent calendar quarters. Both personal consumption (+4.7 percent) and business nonresidential fixed investment (+8.1 percent) are rising, heralding a growing exposure base. In the U.S., short-term interest rates are finally rising, and this is expected to continue. Long-term rates have not changed as much, so the yield curve is flatter. Although bond yields anticipate inflation continuing to be near 2 percent for five or more years, more direct measures see prices rising closer to 3 percent, with prices in some sectors rising much faster. 2018 combined ratios for catastrophe-affected lines of business will likely improve. Personal and commercial auto, however, likely will be closer to 100. The report also includes a special section on investment trends industry.

 

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I.I.I. Economic Snapshot: Fourth Quarter 2017
I.I.I. Economic Snapshot: First Quarter 2018