Latest Studies

Triple-I launches new members-only economics products
Insurance Information Institute Special Report;
May 21, 2021

The Triple-I has recently released new members-only economics products: the Insurance Economics Dashboard and the Insurance Economics Quarterly Outlook. Members are invited to experience this unique approach that highlights the relationship between economics and insurance performance, and the insights incorporated into both products will shape the ways in which the insurance industry’s current and future economic performance are assessed. The dashboard’s ongoing updates will allow users to follow key economic reports (including federal government updates on interest rates, unemployment, and housing trends) in real time, adjust forecasts, and recalibrate views. Each quarter, the Triple-I Outlook will provide a road map about which key economic reports will most impact insurance industry performance. Please log on to the Triple-I members site to access, or email members@iii.org for more information.


Observers: Inflation rising as expected, but there’s no reason for fear
Best's Insurance News;
May 27, 2021

Economic analysts agree that inflation has returned to the U.S. economy, rising 4.2 percent in April, compared with the same month last year, but experts reassure members of the insurance industry that inflation is not likely to rise to the troublesome levels seen 30 or 40 years ago. Triple-I Chief Economist Michel Léonard noted the differences in the forecasts, with some equity analysts predicting inflation rates of between 4 percent and 6 percent while the Federal Reserve predicts a more limited inflationary period with rates of approximately 2 percent. Léonard sides with the Fed and says that it is not unusual for the federal authorities to consider inflation as occurring slowly and consistently, while banking economist forecasts being more aggressive. However, Léonard sees the disparity in the predictions as uncommonly wide. Léonard said that insurers should see an improvement in prices as they end their pandemic-related refunds, and he added that some lines such as cyber can be expected to perform strongly.


Cyber insurance: Insurers and policyholders face challenges in an evolving market
United States Government Accountability Office;
May 20, 2021

This study is based on a Government Accountability Office (GAO) analysis of industry data on cyber insurance policies and a review of reports on cyberrisk and cyber insurance from think tanks and the insurance industry, as well as interviews with Treasury officials. The major trends in the current market include increases in take-ups, price increases, lower coverage limits and cyber-specific policies. The two major challenges to the cyber insurance industry are the limited historical data on losses and the absence of common definitions in cyber policies. Industry stakeholders propose that federal and state governments work with the insurance industry on the collection and distribution of incident data so that the assessment of risk and the development of cyber products may be improved. The White House Council of Economic Advisers reported that the cost of malicious cyberactivity to the nation’s economy in 2016 totaled between $57 billion and $109 billion. Full report


A coming US boom: Consumer spending to power reopening
Swiss Re Institute;
May 20, 2021

The U.S. economy is expected to expand rapidly over the short term as vaccination against the coronavirus increases and consumers begin to spend the estimated $2.3 trillion excess savings, or 12.4 percent of the national economy, they accumulated during the pandemic as of the end of March 2021. Much of the new spending is expected to be for services, travel and leisure. Sectors that gained strength during the pandemic, such as durable goods, will probably give up their accrued gains, except for online retail. Over the next four quarters, this renewed spending is expected to raise the U.S. GDP by approximately 3 percent. The spending boom is expected to subside in mid-2022, a few months after the current fiscal stimulus ends in late 2021.  Full report


WCRI Medical Price Index for Workers’ Compensation, 13th Edition
Workers Compensation Research Institute;
May 20, 2021

For each of the last 12 years, Workers Compensation Research Institute (WCRI) has reported on the prices paid for the services provided by medical practitioners to injured workers throughout the U.S. The 13th annual edition of this annual series notes that public policymakers and other stakeholders in the workers comp system have been focusing on increases in medical costs, and the latest report is intended to provide comparisons of the prices paid across states and show the price trends that are reflected in fee schedules. This report includes an index for the actual prices paid for the most commonly used services in the treatment of injured workers. The report includes multiple exhibits. To learn more about the study and download a free copy please visit wcri.org.


5 strategies to infuse D&I into your organization
Harvard Business Review;
May 19, 2021

This article offers advice to employers on how to improve workplace diversity and inclusion (D&I). Gena Cox, an organizational psychologist and a leadership strategist, and David Lancefield, a catalyst, strategist, and leadership coach, offer five strategies that can be used in a systematic, comprehensive approach to D&I. First, ensure the top management sign on as the leaders of all D&I efforts. Second, D&I should be central to the business strategy. The third strategy is to hold executive leaders accountable for D&I outcomes. The fourth strategy is to mitigate implicit bias at the systemic level. The final strategy is to pivot diversity training to coaching for leadership development. People of color have long faced low rates of hiring, with white applicants receiving more callbacks than others who were equally qualified. Hiring rates for Blacks and Hispanics did not improve between 1990 and 2015. A recent survey showed that while 93 percent of business leaders cited D&I as a top priority, only 34 percent were confident that D&I was strong in their workplace. Full report


Getting to know—and manage—your biggest AI risks
McKinsey;
May 01, 2021

Artificial intelligence (AI) has provided significant value to many organizations, however organizations as well as regulators are also recognizing the risks and ethical hazards related to rapidly evolving AI. The European Union recently proposed AI regulations that include material fines for violations. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has also announced that organizations could be held accountable if their use of AI proliferates bias or inequities. In its latest AI survey, McKinsey recommends that work on risk mitigation should begin with the establishment of legal and risk-management teams that coordinate their efforts with the data science teams that are developing AI applications. These tech trust teams are offered a six-by-six framework that they can use to map risk categories against possible business contexts. The report discusses six categories of AI risk, and the role insurers would play in assigning liability for incidents involving breaches of security or privacy. Full report


Best’s Impairment Rate and Rating Transition Study — 1977 TO 2020
Best’s Special Report;
May 04, 2021

This report is the18th annual update on the long-term impairment rates of insurance companies domiciled in the U.S., based on AM Best ratings and data about financially impaired companies through the end of 2020, reflecting AM Best’s definition of impairment at the time. Two property/casualty (P/C) companies have been added to the list in 2020. In 2019 seven insurers in the U.S. became impaired. This demonstrates the high resilience of the U.S. insurance industry even during the pandemic, as the balance sheets of most of the nation’s life/health and P/C insurance companies remained strong.