I.I.I. Economic Snapshot: Third Quarter 2018

Steven N. Weisbart, Ph.D., CLU, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist

The Economic Snapshot is I.I.I.’s regular look at important trends that shape the property/casualty industry updated quarterly.

This report gives an overview of the property/casualty (P/C) insurance industry and the economy, with sections on commercial lines trends, personal lines trends, financial and economic trends and a special section that focuses on small business. Real GDP growth has shown unexpected strength in recent calendar quarters. Both personal consumption (+4.9 percent) and business nonresidential fixed investment (7.1 percent) are rising, heralding a growing exposure base. This is the second longest expansion since WWII, and many forecasters say it will become the longest when it persists into July 2019. There are virtually no signs of another recession. 2018 combined ratios for catastrophe-affected lines of business will likely improve (due to reversion to the mean), and personal auto and commercial auto likely will be closer to 100. There is no sign of a hard market in 2018, but premium in both personal and commercial lines will likely continue to rise.

 

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I.I.I. Economic Snapshot: Fourth Quarter 2017
I.I.I. Economic Snapshot: First Quarter 2018
I.I.I. Economic Snapshot: Second Quarter 2018