Latest Studies

Global risks report 2019
World Economic Forum;
January 01, 2019

Of the top 10 global risks expected to worsen in 2019, seven are connected to the political environment. More than 90 percent of survey respondents expect economic confrontations/frictions between major powers to deteriorate in 2019, and a similar number predict the erosion of multilateral trading rules and agreements. Cyberattacks and personal identity theft also made the top 10 global threats list for 2019. Over a 10-year period, extreme weather and climate-change policy failures are seen as the most serious threats. The report also includes a series of “what-if” future shocks that examine quantum computing, weather manipulation, monetary populism, emotionally responsive artificial intelligence and other potential risks. A chapter on the human causes and effects of global risks calls for greater action around rising levels of psychological strain across the world. Full report

Allianz Risk Barometer 2019
Alejandra Larumbe Milla, Heidi Polke-Markmann and Patrik Vanheyden
Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty;
January 01, 2019

For its eighth Risk Barometer study, Allianz surveyed a record 2,415 of its customers in global businesses in 86 nations, as well as brokers and industry trade organizations. For the corporate insurance portion of the report, Allianz surveyed risk consultants, underwriters, senior managers and claims experts in Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) and other divisions of Allianz. Respondents were asked to identify three risks that faced companies of all sizes about which they were particularly knowledgeable. Although traditional risks such as natural catastrophes continue to be major concerns, cyberthreats have for the first time become a top risk. Reputational risk and increasing exposure to intangible assets, volatility and consolidation are constantly evolving. Business interruption is the top threat for the seventh consecutive year, with 37 percent identifying it as a consequence of other top risks. AGCS reports that the average business interruption property insurance claim now totals more than 3 million euros ($3.4 million), 39 percent more than the corresponding average direct property damage loss of 2.2 million euros. Full report

Bashe attack: Global infection by contagious malware
Lloyd’s of London and Aon;
January 29, 2019

This study found that a coordinated global cyberattack in which companies’ devices are infected with ransomware could result in economic damage ranging between $85 billion and $193 billion. Researchers developed a hypothetical scenario as a stress test for risk management and found that insurance claims from such attacks would be for business interruption, cyber extortion, the cost of incident response and other losses, claims that were estimated as totaling from $10 billion to $27 billion, based on policy limits in the range of $500,000 to $200 million. The sharp contrast between the estimates of insured and economic losses reveals the extent of underinsurance. The stress test showed that a cyberattack would have the greatest impact on retail, healthcare, manufacturing and banking sectors. The study concluded that regional economies, which are more service dominated, particularly Europe and the U.S., are more vulnerable to higher direct losses. Full report

2018-2019 Judicial Hellholes
American Tort Reform Foundation;
December 11, 2018

This annual report from the American Tort Reform Foundation identified courts or legislatures in California, Florida, New York, Missouri, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Illinois and Minnesota among the nation’s “most unfair” in their handling of civil litigation. Some are known for embracing litigation tourism or as centers for asbestos litigation, and their state governments seem keen to expand civil liability. According to the report, these “Judicial Hellholes” largely contributed to the high costs of the U.S. tort system. The cost and compensation paid in the U.S. tort system totaled $429 billion in 2016, accounting for 2.3 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product. Full report

Adolescent marijuana use fell after legalization in Washington; Study highlights need to use better data to follow youth use trends
RAND Corporation;
December 19, 2018

This news release summarizes a study that examines the effect of non-medical marijuana legalization in Washington on cannabis use among adolescents. Researchers from the RAND Corporation and other organizations found that marijuana use dropped a small, but statistically significant amount among eighth graders and 10th graders in Washington following legalization, while no change was observed among 12th graders. The findings, published as a researcher letter by the journal JAMA Pediatrics, highlight the need for researchers to use representative surveys when trying to determine the influence that legalization has on youth marijuana use. Full report

Correlates of opioid dispensing
Vennela Thumula and Te-Chun Liu
Workers Compensation Research Institute;
December 24, 2018

This study identifies characteristics of injured workers and their employers that are associated with differences in opioid dispensing rates. The study focused on characteristics including worker age and gender, type of injury, location and industry. Injured workers in certain industries are more likely to receive opioids on a chronic basis. The data used for this analysis included 1.4 million pain medication prescriptions filled within 18 months post injury for injuries that occurred between October 1, 2014, and September 30, 2015, in 27 states.  Full report